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Tropical Depression Seven Graphics
2020-07-21 22:38:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 21 Jul 2020 20:38:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 21 Jul 2020 20:38:18 GMT
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Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-07-21 22:36:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Jul 21 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 212036 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 PM AST Tue Jul 21 2020 Satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate that the low pressure area located over the central tropical Atlantic has a well-defined circulation and sufficient organized convection to be designated a tropical depression. Thus, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Seven. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt in best agreement with the subjective satellite intensity estimate from TAFB. The initial motion is 300/7. The depression is south of a strong subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic, and over the next several days it should turn generally westward and accelerate as it encounters the easterly flow associated with the ridge. The ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET models are in reasonably good agreement on their track forecasts, and the NHC official forecast is close to them and the various consensus models. The intensity forecast is lower confidence. The GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models forecast the cyclone to be dissipated or be a weak low by the 120 h point, likely due to to some vertical shear and dry air entrainment. On the other hand, the SHIPS-based guidance and the HWRF forecast the system to be a hurricane at 120 h, shrugging off the shear and dry air. The NHC intensity forecast will be a compromise between these extremes, showing a peak intensity of 55 kt in 60-72 h followed by some weakening based on the global models. The cyclone is small in size, and as a result it could change intensity - both up and down - faster than what is currently forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 9.8N 40.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 10.1N 41.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 10.3N 43.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 10.3N 46.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 10.4N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 24/0600Z 10.6N 51.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 11.0N 54.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 12.0N 61.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 13.5N 68.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Seven Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-07-21 22:35:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 212035 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072020 2100 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) GRENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Seven (AT2/AL072020)
2020-07-21 22:35:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Jul 21 the center of Seven was located near 9.8, -40.4 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Seven Public Advisory Number 1
2020-07-21 22:35:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Jul 21 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 212035 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 PM AST Tue Jul 21 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.8N 40.4W ABOUT 1185 MI...1905 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1420 MI...2285 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven was located near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 40.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the west with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and Wednesday, and that motion should continue through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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