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Tropical Depression Eight Public Advisory Number 1
2020-07-23 04:42:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 230242 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020 1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.9N 88.2W ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for much of the Texas coast from Port Mansfield to High Island. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Port Mansfield to High Island Texas A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Texas and Louisiana coast should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 88.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph, and this general motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday and make landfall along the Texas coast on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected, and the depression could become a tropical storm in a day or so. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Friday. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches along the Gulf coast from Louisiana to the Lower Texas coast, and inland through south-central Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to increase and affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts in a day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Eight Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-07-23 04:42:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 230242 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 0300 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 10(11) 12(23) 1(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 2( 2) 17(19) 9(28) 3(31) X(31) 1(32) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) CAMERON LA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 4(16) 1(17) 1(18) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 10(24) 1(25) 1(26) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) 1(14) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 3(15) 1(16) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 9(23) 2(25) 1(26) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 1(11) X(11) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 13(21) 2(23) 1(24) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 12(17) 3(20) 2(22) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) 1(12) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 3(14) 1(15) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-07-23 04:41:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 230241 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082020 0300 UTC THU JUL 23 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT MANSFIELD TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 88.2W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 88.2W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 87.9W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.3N 89.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 27.0N 90.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.9N 92.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 28.2N 94.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 28.5N 95.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 28.7N 96.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 28.8N 98.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 28.7N 100.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N 88.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 23/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Seven Graphics
2020-07-22 10:39:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 22 Jul 2020 08:39:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 22 Jul 2020 09:24:46 GMT
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Tropical Depression Seven Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-07-22 10:33:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 220832 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072020 500 AM AST Wed Jul 22 2020 The cyclone has become a little better organized this morning with indications of it developing convective banding features. Intensity estimates based on Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are 30 kt and 35 kt respectively. I prefer to wait for consensus 35-kt estimates before naming the system, but it seems very likely that we will have Gonzalo over the tropical Atlantic very soon. The intensity forecast for this system is subject to more than the usual degree of uncertainty. Although the cyclone is likely to remain in an environment of fairly low shear, the influences of dry air and large-scale subsidence could inhibit strengthening in a few days. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and calls for some strengthening during the next couple of days followed by a leveling off thereafter. This is below the model consensus, but above the global model predictions which eventually dissipate the cyclone. It should also be noted that the small size of this system makes it susceptible to significant fluctuations in intensity, both upward and downward. The motion continues a little north of due west or 285/10 kt. A well-defined subtropical ridge is forecast to remain in place to the north of the tropical cyclone during the forecast period. The official forecast, like the previous one, is for a generally westward motion at a fast forward speed over the forecast periods. This is in close agreement with the latest dynamical model consensus. Interests in the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 10.0N 42.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 10.2N 44.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 10.2N 46.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 10.2N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 10.4N 51.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 10.8N 54.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 11.3N 57.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 12.7N 64.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 15.0N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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