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Tropical Depression Five-E Graphics
2020-07-06 22:40:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 06 Jul 2020 20:40:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 06 Jul 2020 21:31:59 GMT
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Tropical Depression Five-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-07-06 22:38:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 062038 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 2100 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 10N 100W 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 55(59) 6(65) X(65) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 40(41) 5(46) X(46) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 2(23) X(23) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 1(16) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 16(41) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 12(27) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 6(23) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-07-06 22:38:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020 208 WTPZ45 KNHC 062038 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020 Satellite imagery shows that deep convection associated with the low pressure area south of Mexico has become significantly better organized since this morning. ASCAT data from earlier this afternoon suggested that the circulation was still somewhat elongated, but since that time low cloud motions indicate that the circulation has become better defined. The scatterometer data also revealed believable wind vectors of at least 30 kt, with higher rain-inflated vectors within the deep convection. Based on these data, advisories are being initiated on a 30-kt tropical depression at this time. The depression is located within a favorable environment consisting of low vertical wind shear, warm sea-surface temperatures, and a moist atmosphere. As a result, steady strengthening is anticipated over the next several days, and the NHC forecast calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane in about 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the intensity consensus aids IVCN and HCCA, but is not quite as bullish as the SHIPS guidance. Given the anticipated low wind shear conditions over the next few days, a period of rapid strengthening is possible, and this intensity forecast could be somewhat conservative. The cyclone is expected to move over cooler waters in about 96 hours, which should cause weakening by the end of the period. Since the depression is still in its formative stage, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/11 kt. The depression is being steered west-northwestward to the south of a large mid-level ridge located over the south-central United States. A general west-northwestward heading about around the same forward speed is expected over the next several days. The dynamical model guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario and the NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 10.5N 99.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 11.2N 101.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 12.1N 103.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 13.0N 105.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 14.1N 107.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 15.0N 109.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 15.7N 110.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 17.2N 114.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 18.8N 118.7W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression Five-E (EP5/EP052020)
2020-07-06 22:38:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 4:00 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 the center of Five-E was located near 10.5, -99.7 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Five-E Public Advisory Number 1
2020-07-06 22:38:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 062037 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Five-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 400 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.5N 99.7W ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five-E was located near latitude 10.5 North, longitude 99.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is predicted during the next 48 hours and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight, and it could become a hurricane on Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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