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Tropical Depression Five Graphics
2020-07-04 16:52:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 04 Jul 2020 14:52:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 04 Jul 2020 14:52:29 GMT
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Tropical Depression Five Forecast Discussion Number 1
2020-07-04 16:51:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Jul 04 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 041451 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 1100 AM AST Sat Jul 04 2020 Late yesterday, a small low pressure system developed near the end of a boundary over the western Atlantic. The low persisted overnight while producing convection that has shown increasing signs of organization. Although the low's center has recently become obscured, earlier one-minute visible imagery confirmed that it is well-defined. The system therefore meets the necessary criteria to be designated as a tropical cyclone. A TAFB Dvorak classification of 2.0 is the basis for the 30 kt initial intensity. The depression is moving quickly toward the east-northeast, caught in the flow between a mid-level ridge to its south and a a trough to its north. This steering pattern is expected to be fairly stable for the next day or so, and the guidance is in good agreement that the cyclone will continue on its current general heading with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. The NHC track forecast closely follows the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. The depression has a sheared appearance, with no convection northwest of its low-level center. A combination of strong upper-level westerly winds and dry mid-level air to the northwest are likely the cause of this, and it is unlikely that the cyclone will get much better organized during the next day or two. That said, some minimal strengthening is possible, even if only due to the expected increase of the cyclone's forward speed. The NHC intensity forecast is based on a consensus of the HWRF, HMON, and GFS models. It is worth noting that the statistical guidance indicates more strengthening is possible, but this is not currently supported by any dynamical models. There is less agreement on the system's future beyond the weekend. It could open into a trough and dissipate or persist long enough to undergo extratropical transition. Since this is the first advisory, the official forecast is somewhat conservative and maintains the system as a closed low for 60 h, but it could certainly dissipate sooner than that. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 31.1N 68.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 32.1N 66.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 34.0N 63.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 36.4N 59.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 39.2N 52.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 41.7N 46.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Depression Five (AT5/AL052020)
2020-07-04 16:50:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Jul 4 the center of Five was located near 31.1, -68.7 with movement ENE at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Five Public Advisory Number 1
2020-07-04 16:50:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Jul 04 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 041450 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Five Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 1100 AM AST Sat Jul 04 2020 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.1N 68.7W ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five was located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 68.7 West. The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A faster east-northeastward motion is expected by tonight, followed by further acceleration on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move near or just northwest and north of Bermuda tonight and early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little overall change in strength is likely, however the system could become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical Depression Five could cause gusty conditions on Bermuda and over the nearby waters later today or tonight. The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Gale Warning. For more information please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. RAIN: Tropical Depression Five is expected to produce total rain accumulations of less than 1 inch with possible isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches in and around Bermuda. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Five Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2020-07-04 16:50:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 04 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 041450 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052020 1500 UTC SAT JUL 04 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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