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Tropical Depression Five-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-07-06 22:37:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 062037 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 2100 UTC MON JUL 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 99.7W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 99.7W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 99.2W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 11.2N 101.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.1N 103.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.0N 105.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.1N 107.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.0N 109.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 15.7N 110.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 17.2N 114.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 18.8N 118.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.5N 99.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Five Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-07-05 22:32:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 052032 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 500 PM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 The depressions cloud pattern has become less organized today, with increasing separation between the remaining convective activity and the low-level center. The circulation also appears to be less defined, but the various ASCAT instruments missed the center late this morning and were not helpful in determining if a well-defined center still exits. Data from the ASCAT-C instrument revealed some 25-30 kt wind vectors over the southeastern portion of the system, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The depression is moving northeastward or 055/23 kt. The system should continue to accelerate northeastward or east-northeastward during the next day or so. Given the expected acceleration and current structure, it would not be surprising if the system degenerated into a trough of low pressure later today or tonight. The depression or its remnants, however, are forecast to transition into an extratropical cyclone on Monday. Little change in strength is forecast although it is possible that the system will produce tropical-storm-force winds by the time it becomes extratropical on Monday as it accelerates and gains some baroclinic support. Only slight adjustments were made to the previous NHC track and intensity forecast, and the new official forecast is near the middle of the dynamical model envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 35.8N 60.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 37.9N 56.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 41.1N 48.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 07/0600Z 44.5N 41.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 07/1800Z 48.0N 34.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression Five (AT5/AL052020)
2020-07-05 22:31:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Jul 5 the center of Five was located near 35.8, -60.5 with movement NE at 26 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Five Public Advisory Number 6
2020-07-05 22:31:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 052031 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Five Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020 500 PM AST Sun Jul 05 2020 ...DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.8N 60.5W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM NE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five was located near latitude 35.8 North, longitude 60.5 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 26 mph (43 km/h). A faster northeastward or east-northeastward motion is expected for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast but the depression could become a tropical storm tonight before it becomes post-tropical on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Five Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-07-05 22:31:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 05 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 052031 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052020 2100 UTC SUN JUL 05 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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