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Tropical Depression Kate Forecast Discussion Number 16
2021-09-01 04:33:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 31 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 010233 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Kate Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 31 2021 Some bursts of convection have been forming within Kate's small circulation during the past several hours, but none of it has any real significant organization. In addition, the low clouds appear to be losing definition, and a very-recent ASCAT-B pass showed that the maximum winds are now only about 25 kt. It's going to be difficult for Kate to make much of a comeback, if at all. Moderate northerly shear, dry mid-level air, upper-level convergence, and an increasingly anticyclonic low-level environment are likely to cause the circulation to spin down further and make it hard for deep convection to persist. Therefore, the NHC official forecast now calls for additional weakening, with Kate likely becoming a remnant low by 36 hours (if not sooner) and dissipating by 72 hours. This scenario is closest to the GFS, HWRF, and HMON solutions. Located on the southwestern periphery of a low-level area of high pressure, Kate is moving toward the north-northwest (345/9 kt). The depression is forecast to turn toward the northwest by morning, but then recurve around the high toward the north and north-northeast in a couple of days. The NHC track forecast remains close to the consensus aids and is generally just an update from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 25.4N 51.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 26.4N 52.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 27.9N 53.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 29.8N 53.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 03/0000Z 31.6N 54.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 03/1200Z 33.1N 53.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression Kate (AT5/AL102021)
2021-09-01 04:32:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KATE UNLIKELY TO LAST FOR ANY MORE THAN ANOTHER DAY OR SO... As of 11:00 PM AST Tue Aug 31 the center of Kate was located near 25.4, -51.3 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Kate Public Advisory Number 16
2021-09-01 04:32:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 31 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 010232 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Kate Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 1100 PM AST Tue Aug 31 2021 ...KATE UNLIKELY TO LAST FOR ANY MORE THAN ANOTHER DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.4N 51.3W ABOUT 905 MI...1455 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Kate was located near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 51.3 West. Kate is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday morning. A turn toward the north and north-northeast is forecast late Thursday and early Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, with Kate forecast to become a remnant low by early Thursday. The remnant low is expected to dissipate on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Kate Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2021-09-01 04:32:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 010232 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 0300 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Depression Twelve Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-09-01 04:32:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 010232 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 200 AM CVT Wed Sep 01 2021 Satellite images indicate that the depression is gradually becoming better organized. An area of deep convection has been persisting near the center, and banding features are beginning to take shape. The latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 2.5/35 kt, which would support upgrading the system to a tropical storm. However, a recent ASCAT-B overpass around 2300 UTC showed maximum winds in the 25-30 kt range in the northeastern quadrant, and based on that data the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. The tropical depression is moving fairly quickly to the west-northwest at 17 kt. The track forecast reasoning appears fairly straightforward. The cyclone is expected to move at a relatively fast pace to the west or west-northwest during the next couple of days as it remains on the south side of a strong mid-level ridge. After that time, a decrease in forward speed and a gradual turn to the northwest are expected as the system nears the southwestern side of the ridge. Although most of the models agree on the synoptic steering pattern, there is a fair amount of spread from days 3 to 5 in how soon the northwestward turn will occur. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and is a little to the north of the previous one based on the more poleward initial position. Since the system is expected to be over relatively warm water and in an air mass of low wind shear and abundant moisture, steady strengthening is expected during the next couple of days. The depression is likely to become a tropical storm within the next 12 hours and a hurricane in 36 to 48 hours. Beyond a few days, an increase in shear and drier air should slow the rate of intensification. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the HCCA, IVCN, and IVDR models. In addition, the global models all show the cyclone becoming fairly large toward the end of the forecast period. The NHC forecast wind radii is larger than the previous one, trending toward the radii consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 12.1N 23.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 12.6N 25.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 12.8N 29.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 13.2N 32.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 13.8N 35.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 03/1200Z 14.5N 37.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 15.4N 40.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 18.0N 44.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 20.7N 47.9W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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