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Tropical Depression Six Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2019-08-26 22:38:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 26 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 262038 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 2100 UTC MON AUG 26 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) X(22) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) X(29) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) X(26) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) X(17) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Six Forecast Advisory Number 1
2019-08-26 22:37:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 26 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 262037 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 2100 UTC MON AUG 26 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 72.5W AT 26/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 72.5W AT 26/2100Z AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 72.6W FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 31.8N 72.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 32.1N 71.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 32.9N 71.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 34.6N 71.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 40.3N 66.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 47.0N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z...MERGED WITH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 72.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Ivo Graphics
2019-08-25 16:35:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 14:35:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Aug 2019 14:35:17 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Ivo (EP5/EP102019)
2019-08-25 16:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...IVO EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 the center of Ivo was located near 25.5, -117.4 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Ivo Public Advisory Number 18
2019-08-25 16:32:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 251432 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ivo Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 800 AM PDT Sun Aug 25 2019 ...IVO EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 117.4W ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ivo was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 117.4 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A decrease in forward speed and a turn to the north is forecast to occur tonight and Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Ivo is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low later today and dissipate by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Ivo are affecting the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and portions of the southern California coastline. These swells are likely to continue through today and could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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