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Tropical Depression Six Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-08-27 10:43:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 270843 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 500 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 The satellite presentation during the past several hours shows some curved banding improvement associated with the cyclone, particularly in the southeast quadrant, however, the circulation is still poorly defined. In fact, imagery reveals multiple swirls rotating about a large circulation. No changes to the subjective satellite intensity estimates, from both TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. The 25-30 kt of westerly shear, indicated by the UW-CIMSS shear product, is forecast to decrease somewhat around mid-period while the system remains over warm oceanic sea surface temperatures. This, along with some baroclinic forcing in response to an approaching mid-latitude trough from the northeast United States, should allow for the cyclone to modestly strengthening. The Florida State Cyclone Phase Evolution forecast, and the global models, including the ECMWF simulated infrared imagery, now indicate the cyclone completing an extratropical transition in 3 days, and the official forecast is adjusted accordingly. Afterward, as extratropical low quickly approaches eastern Canada, the large-scale models show the cyclone becoming absorbed by a larger baroclinic system embedded in the westerlies, and this is also indicated in the official forecast. The initial motion is estimated to be a generally southward drift, or 125/2 kt, within weak low to mid-level steering flow residing between the Bermuda high to the east and a mid-level ridge over the mid-Atlantic states. The depression is forecast to move little through today as it remains in the aforementioned weak steering current. Afterward, a mid-latitude shortwave trough is forecast to move toward the northeastern United States on Wednesday, and should induce a northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed, away from the eastern seaboard. Only a slight adjustment to the left of the previous forecast was made to align more with the reliable NOAA HCCA and TVCA consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 31.0N 71.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 31.4N 71.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 32.5N 71.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 34.1N 71.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 36.7N 69.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 30/0600Z 42.9N 63.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/0600Z 49.8N 55.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Depression Six (AT1/AL062019)
2019-08-27 10:43:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND BERMUDA... As of 5:00 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 the center of Six was located near 31.0, -71.6 with movement SE at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Six Public Advisory Number 3
2019-08-27 10:43:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 270843 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 500 AM EDT Tue Aug 27 2019 ...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.0N 71.6W ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 71.6 West. The depression is drifting toward the southeast near 2 mph (4 km/h), and is expected to move little through tonight, then accelerate northward Wednesday to northeastward Thursday through Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected and the cyclone is forecast to become a tropical storm later tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Six Forecast Advisory Number 3
2019-08-27 10:43:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 000 WTNT21 KNHC 270843 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 71.6W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 125 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 71.6W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 71.8W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 31.4N 71.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 32.5N 71.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 34.1N 71.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 36.7N 69.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 42.9N 63.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 49.8N 55.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 71.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Depression Six Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2019-08-27 10:43:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 270843 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 9(18) X(18) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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