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Tropical Depression Six Graphics
2019-08-27 04:41:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 02:41:09 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Aug 2019 03:31:55 GMT
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Tropical Depression Six Forecast Discussion Number 2
2019-08-27 04:39:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 270239 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019 The depression remains poorly organized this evening with the edge of the cyclone's deep convection displaced nearly 90 n mi southeast of the low level center due to northwesterly shear. A recent scatterometer pass indicates an initial intensity of 30 kt, with winds of 25 kt or greater being confined to the southeastern quadrant. The low level center has been drifting eastward this evening and the initial motion is 100/3 kt. The steering flow surrounding the cyclone is expected to stay weak for the next 24 hours, resulting in a slow, erratic motion. After 24 hours, a mid-latitude trough crossing the eastern United States will accelerate the system to the northeast, keeping it well to the east of the United States coast. The latest forecast is similar to the previous one, and near the corrected consensus HCCA. The wind shear over the depression is forecast to decrease somewhat over the next 48 hours while the system remains over warm waters. This should allow for the depression to intensify into a tropical storm during that time. After 48 hours, strong upper level southwesterly winds ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough should initiate a gradual extratropical transition of the cyclone. After 96 hours, the cyclone is expected to be absorbed by a larger system embedded in the westerlies. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 31.5N 72.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 31.6N 72.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 32.1N 71.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 33.4N 71.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 35.5N 70.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 41.3N 65.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 48.1N 57.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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Tropical Depression Six Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2019-08-27 04:39:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 000 FONT11 KNHC 270239 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062019 0300 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) X(19) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) X(20) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) X(24) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Depression Six (AT1/AL062019)
2019-08-27 04:38:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AS IT MEANDERS BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND BERMUDA... As of 11:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 the center of Six was located near 31.5, -72.2 with movement E at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Six Public Advisory Number 2
2019-08-27 04:38:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019 000 WTNT31 KNHC 270238 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062019 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 26 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AS IT MEANDERS BETWEEN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.5N 72.2W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 72.2 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 3 mph (6 km/h). The depression is expected to meander through Tuesday before accelerating northeastward Tuesday night through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is expected over the next day or so and the depression is expected to intensify to a tropical storm by Tuesday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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