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Tropical Depression Fourteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2018-10-07 16:53:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 000 FONT14 KNHC 071453 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 1500 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 19(26) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 13(24) CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 24(29) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20(26) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 20(28) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 16(28) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 11(28) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 18(27) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 17(29) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 14(27) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 11(27) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 9(29) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 3(25) ATLANTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 8(31) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 6(29) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 4(27) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 25(30) 4(34) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 2(25) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 3(26) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) 1(26) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 2(17) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) 2(21) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) X(12) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 9(17) X(17) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 13(34) 1(35) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 34(49) 2(51) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 1(16) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 31(47) 2(49) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 1(16) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 38(40) 21(61) 1(62) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 11(24) X(24) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 42(47) 13(60) 1(61) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 9(25) X(25) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 40(41) 22(63) X(63) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 14(26) X(26) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 22(57) X(57) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 12(22) 1(23) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 30(35) 1(36) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) COLUMBUS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 1(18) BIRMINGHAM AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 22(29) 1(30) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) MONTGOMERY AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 24(41) X(41) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 1(15) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 20(40) 1(41) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 47(53) 13(66) X(66) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 10(32) X(32) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 14(28) 1(29) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 9(21) X(21) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) X(17) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 5(17) 1(18) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 31(39) 5(44) X(44) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) X(17) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) X(15) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 26 21(47) 2(49) 1(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) COZUMEL MX 50 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 1 24(25) 14(39) 2(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-10-07 16:53:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018 000 WTNT44 KNHC 071453 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018 Satellite and radar data indicate that the depression continues to become better organized, but surface data suggests the circulation may be somewhat elongated. There is still evidence of westerly shear as the center is located near the western edge of the main convective mass, but there has been an increase in banding over the eastern semicircle since yesterday afternoon. The depression appears to be close to tropical storm strength and Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are between 30-35 kt. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system early this afternoon and should provide a better assessment of the intensity of the cyclone. For now, the intensity is held at a possibly conservative 30 kt. The moderate westerly shear that is affecting the depression is forecast to gradually decrease over the next day or two as an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico moves westward and weakens. This, in combination with warm waters, should allow for gradual strengthening as the system moves northward over the Gulf of Mexico. Nearly all of the intensity models bring the cyclone to hurricane strength over the Gulf of Mexico in 2 to 3 days, and the NHC forecast follows suit. The new NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous advisory and again lies near the ICON intensity consensus. This is a little below the more aggressive HWRF and HCCA models. The depression is moving northward at about 5 kt. The system is forecast to move generally northward during the next 2 to 3 days, with some increase in forward speed as it moves between a deep-layer ridge over the western Atlantic and a trough over the west-central United Sates. A northeastward turn is expected after 72 hours as the aforementioned trough progresses eastward across the central United States. The dynamical models generally agree on the overall scenario, but there are still large difference in forward speed. In fact, the ECMWF ensemble has members that are still over the Gulf of Mexico in 5 days, and others that reach southern New England in that time period. The NHC forecast is near the left side of the guidance envelope through 48 hours out of respect for the GFS and ECMWF that are both on that side of the track spread. After that time, the NHC track forecast is close to the various consensus aids to account for both the along and cross track spread of the guidance. Key Messages for Tropical Depression Fourteen: 1. The depression is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. 2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today, and tropical storm conditions are expected by tonight over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, where tropical storm warnings are in effect. 3. There is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts over portions of the northern Gulf Coast by mid-week, although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these impacts. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 19.2N 86.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 20.0N 86.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 21.5N 86.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 23.2N 86.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 24.9N 87.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 28.7N 86.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 33.0N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 12/1200Z 37.8N 73.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fourteen (AT4/AL142018)
2018-10-07 16:53:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWARD... ...HEAVY RAINS WILL SPREAD OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 7 the center of Fourteen was located near 19.2, -86.9 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Advisory Number 4
2018-10-07 16:53:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 000 WTNT24 KNHC 071452 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 1500 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 86.9W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 86.9W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 86.9W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.0N 86.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.5N 86.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.2N 86.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.9N 87.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 28.7N 86.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 33.0N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 37.8N 73.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 86.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Public Advisory Number 4
2018-10-07 16:53:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018 000 WTNT34 KNHC 071452 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018 ...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWARD... ...HEAVY RAINS WILL SPREAD OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 86.9W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth * The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of the depression. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 86.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center will move near the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula Monday morning, and then across the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday through Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The system could become a hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by this evening or tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: Total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches are expected over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and northern Honduras through Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in areas of mountainous terrain. Elsewhere, outer rain bands from the depression are expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys through Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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