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Tropical Depression Rosa Forecast Discussion Number 29
2018-10-02 10:51:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018 276 WTPZ45 KNHC 020851 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Rosa Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018 Satellite imagery continues to show a lack of convection near the center of Rosa this morning. The remaining convection is located well northeast of the center, and is spreading inland over northern Mexico and portions of the Desert Southwest. A couple of partial ASCAT passes revealed an area of 25-30 kt winds over the central Gulf of California, and this is the basis for reducing the initial intensity to 30 kt. The data also suggest that the circulation has become elongated and that a new center may be forming near the northeastern coast of the Baja California peninsula. The initial motion estimate is 030/9 kt. Rosa is expected to move northeastward between a deep-layer ridge over northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough over the northeastern Pacific. These steering features should bring the center of Rosa across the northern Gulf of California and into northern Mexico this afternoon. Southwesterly shear and land interaction should cause the cyclone to continue to weaken today, and Rosa is expected to dissipate over northern Mexico or southwestern Arizona by tonight. Although Rosa is forecast to weaken, the system is still expected to bring heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding to portions of northwestern Mexico and the Desert Southwest during the next day or so. Key Messages: 1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy rainfall in Baja California, northwestern Sonora, and the U.S. Desert Southwest. These rains are expected to produce life-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and landslides in mountainous terrain. For more information about potential rainfall in those areas, please see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 29.3N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 31.8N 114.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Rosa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2018-10-02 10:51:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 284 FOPZ15 KNHC 020851 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 0900 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P PENASCO 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Depression Rosa (EP5/EP202018)
2018-10-02 10:51:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND DANGEROUS DEBRIS FLOWS AND LANDSLIDES POSSIBLE... As of 3:00 AM MDT Tue Oct 2 the center of Rosa was located near 29.3, -114.9 with movement NNE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Rosa Forecast Advisory Number 29
2018-10-02 10:51:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 194 WTPZ25 KNHC 020851 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 0900 UTC TUE OCT 02 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN SONORA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 114.9W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 114.9W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 115.1W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 31.8N 114.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 114.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Rosa Public Advisory Number 29
2018-10-02 10:51:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018 192 WTPZ35 KNHC 020851 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Rosa Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018 ...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND DANGEROUS DEBRIS FLOWS AND LANDSLIDES POSSIBLE... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 114.9W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all watches and warnings. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should continue to monitor the progress of Rosa. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rosa was located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 114.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). This motion with an increase in forward speed is expected today. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will move across the Baja California peninsula and into the northern Gulf of California this morning. Rosa's remnants are then expected to move across the Desert Southwest by tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast and Rosa is expected to become a remnant low over northern Mexico or the southwestern United States later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations into Wednesday: Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona. Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin: 1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding. Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in mountainous terrain. WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are possible over the central portions of the Baja California peninsula this morning, especially over higher elevations. SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula, and southern California through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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