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Tropical Depression Twenty-E Graphics
2018-09-25 10:45:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 25 Sep 2018 08:45:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 25 Sep 2018 09:28:11 GMT
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Tropical Depression Twenty-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-09-25 10:43:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018 831 WTPZ45 KNHC 250843 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 300 AM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018 The low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring off the coast of southwestern Mexico has now become a tropical depression, the twentieth of the eastern North Pacific 2018 season. ASCAT data from around 0400 UTC indicated that the system had a well-defined center and maximum winds in the 25-30 kt range. In addition, satellite images show deep convection increasing in coverage and intensity near the center. The initial wind speed is set at 30 kt, based on the ASCAT data, but this is a little below the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Since the depression has only recently formed, the initial motion is an uncertain 280/7 kt. Mid-level ridging to the north of the system should keep the depression on a westward to west- northwestward path at about the same forward speed for the next few days. Thereafter, the models show the ridge breaking down due to a large cut off deep-layer low moving toward the west coast of the United States. In response, the cyclone is expected to turn to the northwest this weekend. The models agree on this overall scenario, but there is a fair amount of spread by the end of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and close to the best performing models, the consensus aids. The environmental conditions appear favorable for the depression to strengthen. SSTs are expected to remain quite warm beneath the cyclone for the next several days while vertical wind shear values are around 10 kt or less. These conditions combined with a moist airmass should allow for at least steady strengthening during the next 3 to 4 days. Some weakening is possible by the end of the forecast period due to slightly cooler SSTs and an increase in shear. The NHC intensity forecast shows a slower rate of strengthening than the guidance, since the system is still in the developing stage, but predicts peak winds near the IVCN consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 14.5N 107.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 14.9N 108.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 15.5N 109.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 15.8N 111.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 16.1N 112.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 16.9N 115.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 18.3N 118.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 20.7N 119.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Twenty-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-09-25 10:43:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018 837 FOPZ15 KNHC 250843 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 0900 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 110W 34 1 40(41) 17(58) 4(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) 15N 110W 50 X 5( 5) 8(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 15N 110W 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) 5(20) 1(21) X(21) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 44(56) 7(63) 1(64) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 6(26) X(26) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13) X(13) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 35(51) 4(55) 1(56) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 3(19) 1(20) 15N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 11(34) 3(37) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 4(18) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 29(55) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-E (EP5/EP202018)
2018-09-25 10:43:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 3:00 AM MDT Tue Sep 25 the center of Twenty-E was located near 14.5, -107.2 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Twenty-E Public Advisory Number 1
2018-09-25 10:43:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018 491 WTPZ35 KNHC 250843 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 300 AM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 107.2W ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-E was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 107.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A west to west-northwest motion at a similar forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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