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Tropical Depression Twenty-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-09-25 10:43:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018 490 WTPZ25 KNHC 250843 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202018 0900 UTC TUE SEP 25 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 107.2W AT 25/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 107.2W AT 25/0900Z AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 106.9W FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 14.9N 108.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.5N 109.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 15.8N 111.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 16.1N 112.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.9N 115.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 18.3N 118.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 20.7N 119.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 107.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Kirk Graphics
2018-09-24 10:34:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Sep 2018 08:34:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Sep 2018 09:22:03 GMT
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Tropical Depression Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 8
2018-09-24 10:33:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 632 WTNT42 KNHC 240833 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Kirk Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 500 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 After having a minimal amount of deep convection late yesterday, Kirk is now producing some thunderstorm activity in fragmented bands around the estimated center. However, earlier ASCAT data and low cloud motion suggest that the circulation resembles a sharp trough instead of a closed low that is necessary for a tropical cyclone. Hopefully more visible satellite images and additional scatterometer data will help better assess the circulation and status of Kirk. For now, advisories are being maintained on the system, and the initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data and a blend of the Dvorak estimates. Kirk is moving very quickly to the west at about 21 kt, which is likely the reason why the system has been struggling. A continued westward motion but at a decreasing forward speed is expected during the next two to three days while the cyclone remains on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that time, a large deep-layer low pressure system over the central Atlantic should cause Kirk to gain more latitude. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one, and remains near the southern side of the guidance envelope near the GFS and ECMWF models. This forecast takes Kirk toward the Lesser Antilles in 3 to 4 days and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. Although Kirk will be moving over warmer SSTs and remain in relatively moist conditions, its fast forward speed will likely limit the system from strengthening significantly during the next few days, so only a little intensification is predicted. The global models show a notable increase in westerly shear when Kirk reaches the eastern Caribbean Sea in about 4 days, and that should cause weakening and possibly even dissipation by the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the lower side of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the NOAA HCCA model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 9.5N 37.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 9.9N 40.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 10.2N 44.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 10.5N 48.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 10.9N 51.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 12.1N 57.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 13.2N 61.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 14.0N 66.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression Kirk (AT2/AL122018)
2018-09-24 10:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KIRK MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 24 the center of Kirk was located near 9.5, -37.4 with movement W at 24 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Kirk Public Advisory Number 8
2018-09-24 10:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 428 WTNT32 KNHC 240832 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Kirk Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 500 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018 ...KIRK MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.5N 37.4W ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1615 MI...2600 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Kirk was located near latitude 9.5 North, longitude 37.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this fast motion is expected to continue for another day or so. A decrease in forward speed is expected by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Although slight strengthening is forecast during the next few days, it is possible that Kirk could degenerate into a trough of low pressure during the next day or two while it moves quickly across the tropical central Atlantic. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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