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Summary for Tropical Depression Fourteen (AT4/AL142018)
2018-10-07 10:51:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 7 the center of Fourteen was located near 18.6, -86.9 with movement NNW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2018-10-07 10:51:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 000 FONT14 KNHC 070851 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 0900 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) DANVILLE VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) GREENSBORO NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 6(17) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 7(19) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 6(18) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 6(17) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 4(19) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 3(15) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) X(10) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 12(22) 2(24) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 6(31) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) 5(30) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 20(38) 4(42) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 18(41) 2(43) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 1(15) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 23(42) 3(45) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 22(40) 3(43) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 2(14) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 6(22) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 4(22) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20(29) 2(31) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20(29) 2(31) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 22(54) 1(55) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 11(22) 1(23) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) 1(26) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) 1(22) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) 1(20) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 11(21) 1(22) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 28(32) 12(44) 1(45) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) X(18) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 1(17) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 7(22) X(22) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) COZUMEL MX 34 5 35(40) 6(46) 2(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) COZUMEL MX 50 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COZUMEL MX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 15(15) 22(37) 4(41) 3(44) X(44) X(44) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Public Advisory Number 3
2018-10-07 10:51:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018 000 WTNT34 KNHC 070851 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018 ...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.6N 86.9W ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM E OF CHETUMAL MEXICO ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch from Tulum to Cabo Catoche to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth * The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of the depression. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 86.9 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected later today, with that motion at a faster forward speed continuing through early Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center will move through the Yucatan Channel Monday morning and then across the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next several days, with the depression expected to become a tropical storm later today. The system could become a hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by this evening or tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: Total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches are expected over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and northern Honduras through Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba. A separate area of persistent very heavy rainfall is expected along the Pacific coast of Central America and Mexico, including western Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, and the state of Chiapas in Mexico. In many of these areas this rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Elsewhere, outer rain bands from the depression are expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys through Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Advisory Number 3
2018-10-07 10:51:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 000 WTNT24 KNHC 070850 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 0900 UTC SUN OCT 07 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH * THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL U.S. GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 86.9W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 86.9W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 87.0W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.4N 86.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.8N 86.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 70SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.3N 86.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.9N 87.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.6N 87.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 32.0N 84.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 37.0N 76.0W...NEAR THE VA COAST MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 86.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Rosa Graphics
2018-10-02 10:54:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Oct 2018 08:54:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Oct 2018 08:54:07 GMT
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rosa
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