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Summary for Tropical Depression Fourteen (AT4/AL142018)
2018-10-07 13:51:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... ...HEAVY RAINS WILL SPREAD OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY... As of 7:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 7 the center of Fourteen was located near 18.9, -86.8 with movement N at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Public Advisory Number 3A
2018-10-07 13:51:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018 000 WTNT34 KNHC 071150 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 700 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... ...HEAVY RAINS WILL SPREAD OVER WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 86.8W ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM ENE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth * The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests along the northeastern and central U.S. Gulf coast should monitor the progress of the depression. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 86.8 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). This general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center will move through the Yucatan Channel Monday morning and then across the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The system could become a hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by this evening or tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: Total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches are expected over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and northern Honduras through Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba. A separate area of persistent very heavy rainfall is expected along the Pacific coast of Central America and Mexico, including western Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, and the state of Chiapas in Mexico. In many of these areas this rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Elsewhere, outer rain bands from the depression are expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the Florida Keys through Monday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Graphics
2018-10-07 13:50:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 07 Oct 2018 11:50:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 07 Oct 2018 09:28:30 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Graphics
2018-10-07 10:53:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 07 Oct 2018 08:53:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 07 Oct 2018 08:53:47 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-10-07 10:52:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018 000 WTNT44 KNHC 070851 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018 Radar data from Belize and infrared satellite imagery indicate that the low pressure system centered just off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula has continued to become better organized, with deep convection consolidating just to the northeast of the low-level center. Dvorak estimates have increased to T2.0 from TAFB and T1.5 from SAB, indicating that the convective pattern has become sufficiently organized for the low to now be declared a tropical depression. The maximum winds are estimated to be 30 kt based on earlier ASCAT data. The Belize radar data was extremely helpful in locating the depression's center, and the system's 12-hour average motion is north-northwestward, or 340 degrees, at a very slow 3 kt. The depression is expected to move generally northward during the next 3 days, gradually gaining speed as it enters the southerly flow between high pressure over the western Atlantic and an advancing deep-layer trough over the western half of the United States. After day 3, the trough is expected to cause the cyclone to turn northeastward and accelerate further across the southeastern United States. While the track models agree on the general scenario, there are some speed differences, most notably with the ECMWF model being slower than the other guidance. Also, the ECMWF and GFS models are located along the western edge of the guidance envelope. In light of these facts, the new NHC prediction is just a little slower than the previous one, and it lies to the west of the TVCN multi-model consensus and the HCCA model during the first 3 days of the forecast. The depression is still being hampered by 20-30 kt of westerly shear, however it is also located in an environment of upper-level diffluence to the southeast of a stationary trough over the Gulf of Mexico. The shear in the immediate vicinity of the cyclone is forecast to gradually abate during the next 2-3 days while the diffluent upper-air pattern continues, and along with sufficiently warm waters of 28-30 degrees Celsius, all indications are that the depression will gradually strengthen while it moves northward over the Gulf of Mexico. In fact, nearly every piece of intensity guidance brings the cyclone to hurricane strength before it reaches land, including the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global models, which all show significant deepening of the central pressure. The updated NHC intensity forecast generally lies between the ICON intensity consensus and the HCCA model for the entire forecast period, and it now explicitly shows the cyclone reaching hurricane strength by 72 hours. Key Messages for Tropical Depression Fourteen: 1. The depression is producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding over portions of Central America, and these rains will spread over western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. 2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today, and tropical storm conditions are expected by tonight over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, where tropical storm warnings are in effect. 3. Storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts are possible over portions of the northern Gulf Coast by mid-week, although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these impacts. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 18.6N 86.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 19.4N 86.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 20.8N 86.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 22.3N 86.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 23.9N 87.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 27.6N 87.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 32.0N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 120H 12/0600Z 37.0N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR THE VA COAST $$ Forecaster Berg
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