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Tropical Depression Joyce Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2018-09-16 16:41:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 308 FONT15 KNHC 161441 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Advisory Number 16
2018-09-16 16:40:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 314 WTNT25 KNHC 161440 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102018 1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 34.3W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 34.3W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 35.2W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 34.9N 31.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 34.5N 28.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 33.6N 27.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 32.6N 26.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 30.4N 29.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.7N 34.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Florence Graphics
2018-09-16 10:55:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 16 Sep 2018 08:55:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 16 Sep 2018 09:22:11 GMT
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Tropical Depression Florence Forecast Advisory Number 68
2018-09-16 10:52:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 031 WTNT21 KNHC 160852 CCA TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FLORENCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 68...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 0900 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 CORRECTED CENTRAL PRESSURE TO 1000 MB CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA IS DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 81.4W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 81.4W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.7N 81.0W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.7N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 36.7N 83.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 38.7N 82.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 39.8N 79.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 42.0N 68.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 43.5N 55.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 46.0N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 81.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON FLORENCE. FUTURE INFORMATION ON FLORENCE CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 1500 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1, WMO HEADER WTNT31 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Florence Forecast Discussion Number 68
2018-09-16 10:48:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018 635 WTNT41 KNHC 160848 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Florence Discussion Number 68 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018 Surface observations indicate that there are no longer any sustained tropical-storm-force winds as the center of Florence has moved farther inland over South Carolina. Therefore, the system is being downgraded to a tropical depression at this time. Maximum winds are estimated to be 30 kt. Continued gradual weakening is likely, and the numerical guidance suggests that the cyclone will be disorganized enough to become a remnant low in 36 hours or so. In 72 hours, global models indicate that the system will become an extratropical cyclone, with some strengthening due to baroclinic processes as it moves over the Atlantic in 3-5 days. This scenario is very similar to that from the previous advisory. The forward speed of Florence has increased somewhat early this morning and the motion is now near 280/7 kt. The high pressure system that has been blocking the forward progress of Florence is predicted to slide eastward and southeastward during the next day or so. As a result, over the next couple of days, Florence is expected to move northwestward, northward, and then north-northeastward around the periphery of the high. Later in the forecast period, Florence should accelerate east-northeastward in the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and close to the dynamical model consensus. This will be the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Florence. Future information on Florence can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 11 AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash floods and prolonged significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas and the southern to central Appalachians from western North Carolina into west-central Virginia and far eastern West Virginia through early this week, as Florence continues to move slowly inland. In addition to the flash flood and flooding threat, landslides are also possible in the higher terrain of the southern and central Appalachians across western North Carolina into southwest Virginia. 2. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 33.8N 81.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 16/1800Z 34.7N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 17/0600Z 36.7N 83.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/1800Z 38.7N 82.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0600Z 39.8N 79.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z 42.0N 68.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 20/0600Z 43.5N 55.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 21/0600Z 46.0N 40.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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