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Tropical Depression Isaac Public Advisory Number 28
2018-09-14 16:31:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 803 WTNT34 KNHC 141431 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Isaac Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 ...BANDS OF RAIN FROM ISAAC CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 67.3W ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Isaac was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 67.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. A turn to the west-northwest is possible early next week if Isaac survives. On the forecast track, Isaac will move over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Isaac is forecast to gradually weaken over the next few days, and could degenerate into a tropical wave at any time. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate the depression. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 3 inches with isolated maximum totals of up to 5 inches across southeast Puerto Rico. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches are possible across the remainder of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Leeward Islands and the northern Windward Islands. Rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches are possible across the south- central portion of the Dominican Republic, southwest Haiti and Jamaica. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Isaac Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2018-09-14 16:31:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 705 FONT14 KNHC 141431 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 1500 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Isaac Forecast Advisory Number 28
2018-09-14 16:30:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 549 WTNT24 KNHC 141430 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 1500 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 67.3W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 67.3W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 66.5W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 15.0N 69.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.1N 71.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.2N 73.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.6N 75.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.0N 79.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 67.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Isaac Forecast Advisory Number 27
2018-09-14 11:12:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 160 WTNT24 KNHC 140911 CCA TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 0900 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 CORRECTED TO REMOVE 12-FT SEAS THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 65.5W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 65.5W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 64.9W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.1N 67.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.2N 69.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.2N 72.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.4N 73.8W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.4N 77.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 65.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Isaac Graphics
2018-09-14 10:34:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 14 Sep 2018 08:34:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 14 Sep 2018 08:34:02 GMT
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