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Tropical Depression Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 27
2018-09-14 10:32:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 207 WTNT44 KNHC 140832 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Isaac Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 500 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 Northwesterly shear continues to take a toll on Isaac. Although the system is still producing areas of deep convection, an ASCAT overpass that arrived shortly after the release of the previous advisory, indicated that the circulation had become even less defined. The ASCAT data also showed that the winds are below tropical storm strength, therefore the initial intensity has been reduced to 30 kt. Moderate to strong northwesterly shear and dry mid-level air are likely to cause additional weakening, and Isaac is forecast to degenerate into an open wave within the next several days, but this could occur much sooner if the current trends continue. When the system reaches the western Caribbean Sea the shear may relax somewhat and moisture levels are expected to be higher. These conditions could allow for regeneration of the system, but the ECMWF and GFS both show Issac weakening and moving over the western Caribbean as an open wave, and the NHC forecast follows this scenario. A low- to mid-level ridge over the southwestern Atlantic continues to steer Isaac westward, and this general motion should continue until dissipation occur. The new track forecast is once again essentially an update of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 15.0N 65.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 15.1N 67.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 15.2N 69.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 15.2N 72.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 15.4N 73.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 16.4N 77.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 96H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Isaac Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2018-09-14 10:32:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 238 FONT14 KNHC 140832 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 0900 UTC FRI SEP 14 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Isaac (AT4/AL092018)
2018-09-14 10:31:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ISAAC WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...BANDS OF RAIN LINGERING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 14 the center of Isaac was located near 15.0, -65.5 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Isaac Public Advisory Number 27
2018-09-14 10:31:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 065 WTNT34 KNHC 140831 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Isaac Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 500 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018 ...ISAAC WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...BANDS OF RAIN LINGERING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 65.5W ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Isaac was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 65.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, Isaac will move over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Isaac is forecast to gradually weaken over the next few days, and could degenerate into a tropical wave at any time. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce additional rainfall of 2 to 3 inches with isolated amounts up to 5 inches across the northern Windward Islands into the Leeward islands, and southeastern Puerto Rico. Totals of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches are possible across the remainder of Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Dominican Republic and Haiti. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Paul Graphics
2018-09-12 04:33:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 12 Sep 2018 02:33:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 12 Sep 2018 03:46:20 GMT
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