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Tropical Depression Paul Forecast Advisory Number 11
2018-09-11 04:45:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 320 WTPZ23 KNHC 110245 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 0300 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 122.0W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 122.0W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 121.6W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.9N 123.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.3N 125.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 22.6N 127.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.9N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.2N 130.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 23.2N 131.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 23.0N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 122.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Paul Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2018-09-11 04:45:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 317 FOPZ13 KNHC 110245 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 0300 UTC TUE SEP 11 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Graphics
2018-09-09 04:48:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 09 Sep 2018 02:48:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 09 Sep 2018 02:48:22 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-09-09 04:46:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018 180 WTPZ43 KNHC 090246 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018 The depression has changed little during the past several hours. The system remains sheared with the center located near the eastern edge of the main area of deep convection. This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to about 15 kt of east-northeasterly shear. The satellite intensity estimates range between 30-35 kt, so the initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. The depression should have some opportunity to strengthen during the next 2 to 3 days while it remains over warm waters and in a relatively moist environment. However, the global models suggest that the shear may not let up much during that time period, so only slow strengthening is anticipated. Beyond a few days, the water temperatures beneath the system are forecast to fall below 26 deg C. These unfavorable oceanic conditions and a drier and more stable airmass should cause a weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, but still lies at the high end of the model guidance. The depression is still moving westward but at a slower pace than before. The models all show the system turning northwestward overnight and maintaining that motion during the next few days as it is steered by a weakening mid-level ridge. Once the system moves over cooler waters and becomes shallow, a turn to the west-northwest is forecast as the cyclone is steered by the low-level flow. The new NHC track is a little north of the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 16.1N 117.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 17.0N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 18.3N 119.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 19.6N 120.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 20.5N 122.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 21.7N 125.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 22.8N 129.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 14/0000Z 23.7N 132.1W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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depression
Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2018-09-09 04:43:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 354 FOPZ13 KNHC 090243 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 0300 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 X 6( 6) 40(46) 10(56) 3(59) X(59) X(59) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 26(33) 4(37) X(37) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) 1(13) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 1(14) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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