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Tropical Depression Florence Public Advisory Number 69
2018-09-16 17:11:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018
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Tropical Depression Joyce Graphics
2018-09-16 16:43:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 16 Sep 2018 14:43:13 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 16 Sep 2018 14:43:13 GMT
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Tropical Depression Joyce Forecast Discussion Number 16
2018-09-16 16:41:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 947 WTNT45 KNHC 161441 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 Joyce is barely a tropical cyclone at the moment. The cloud pattern consists of a low-level swirl with a small patch of deep convection located about 80 n mi northeast of the center and another patch of weakening convection well removed from the center in the northeast quadrant. Visible satellite images and a partial ASCAT pass indicate that the circulation of the cyclone has also become increasingly elongated from northeast to southwest. Based on the system's appearance and the satellite intensity estimates, the initial wind speed is lowered to 30 kt, making Joyce a tropical depression. The depression is moving east-northeastward at 16 kt within the mid-latitude westerlies, and this motion should continue through tonight. After that time, the shallow cyclone is expected to slow down and turn southeastward and then southwestward as it is moves in the flow on the east side of a building low- to mid-level ridge. The track models are in fairly good agreement, and little overall change was made to the previous NHC forecast. Joyce is currently in a quite hostile environment of 30-40 kt of west-southwesterly shear. Even though SSTs are relatively warm, the ongoing strong shear and nearby dry air should continue to cause the cyclone to gradually weaken. Although the NHC forecast shows Joyce hanging on as a tropical depression for a couple of more days, it is very possible that the system could degenerate into a trough or a remnant low at any time during that period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 34.7N 34.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 34.9N 31.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 34.5N 28.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 33.6N 27.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 32.6N 26.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 30.4N 29.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression Joyce (AT5/AL102018)
2018-09-16 16:41:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOYCE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 16 the center of Joyce was located near 34.7, -34.3 with movement ENE at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Joyce Public Advisory Number 16
2018-09-16 16:41:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 275 WTNT35 KNHC 161441 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Joyce Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102018 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 ...JOYCE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.7N 34.3W ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Joyce was located near latitude 34.7 North, longitude 34.3 West. The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. After that time, the cyclone should slow down and turn toward the southeast and then the southwest away from the Azores. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and Joyce could degenerate into a trough or a remnant low within the next couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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