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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2018-09-08 22:49:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 854 FOPZ13 KNHC 082049 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 2100 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 27(29) 24(53) 3(56) X(56) X(56) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 41(44) 6(50) X(50) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) X(16) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 2(16) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eighteen-E (EP3/EP182018)
2018-09-08 22:48:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 8 the center of Eighteen-E was located near 15.8, -116.8 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Public Advisory Number 2
2018-09-08 22:48:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018 511 WTPZ33 KNHC 082048 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018 ...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 116.8W ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen-E was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 116.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slower motion toward the northwest or west-northwest is anticipated for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and could become a hurricane on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2018-09-08 22:48:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 221 WTPZ23 KNHC 082048 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 2100 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 116.8W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 360SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 116.8W AT 08/2100Z AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 116.5W FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.5N 117.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.6N 118.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.9N 119.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.9N 121.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.0N 125.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 22.3N 129.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 23.5N 132.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 116.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-09-08 19:19:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 337 WTPZ23 KNHC 081719 CCA TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 1500 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 CORRECTED WIND GUSTS FROM 12 HOURS TO 48 HOURS AND 120 HOURS THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 115.9W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 115.9W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 115.4W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.6N 116.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.7N 117.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.9N 118.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.1N 119.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.5N 123.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 23.0N 126.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 24.5N 129.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 115.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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