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Tropical Depression Nine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2018-09-08 16:53:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 864 FONT14 KNHC 081453 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 1500 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 26(31) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GRENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) TRINIDADTOBAGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Graphics

2018-09-08 16:43:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 08 Sep 2018 14:43:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 08 Sep 2018 14:43:30 GMT

Tags: graphics tropical depression tropical depression

 
 

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

2018-09-08 16:36:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 537 FOPZ13 KNHC 081436 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 1500 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 38(53) 14(67) X(67) X(67) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 9(25) X(25) X(25) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 11(30) 2(32) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20(26) 3(29) 25N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) 25N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2018-09-08 16:36:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018 506 WTPZ43 KNHC 081436 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018 The area of low pressure that NHC has been tracking for several days has enough organized deep convection this morning to be classified as a tropical depression. Some northeasterly shear is affecting the cyclone, with the apparent center on the northeastern side of a growing area of deep convection. The initial wind speed is set to 30 kt, in accordance with the Dvorak classification from TAFB. Gradual strengthening is forecast while the cyclone remains over warm waters within a light-to-moderate shear environment. After 72 hours, the water temperatures drop off quite a bit and weakening should begin. The NHC forecast is close to, but a little above, the model consensus near peak intensity to account for the low bias the model guidance has had for many eastern Pacific storms this year. An uncertain initial motion estimate is 290/10. All of the model guidance turn the cyclone northwestward by tomorrow as the cyclone rounds the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge located over Mexico. A turn back toward the west-northwest is anticipated in a few days due to the system coming under the influence of the primary eastern Pacific subtropical ridge. For a first advisory, the model guidance isn't in terrible disagreement, so the NHC prediction will lie near close to the various consensus and corrected-consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 16.1N 115.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 16.6N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 17.7N 117.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 18.9N 118.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 20.1N 119.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 21.5N 123.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 23.0N 126.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 13/1200Z 24.5N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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Summary for Tropical Depression Eighteen-E (EP3/EP182018)

2018-09-08 16:36:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE BUSY 2018 SEASON... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAND... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Sep 8 the center of Eighteen-E was located near 16.1, -115.9 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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