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Tropical Depression Nine Graphics
2018-09-08 16:57:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 08 Sep 2018 14:57:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 08 Sep 2018 14:57:50 GMT
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Tropical Depression Nine Forecast Discussion Number 4
2018-09-08 16:57:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 571 WTNT44 KNHC 081457 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 The structure of Tropical Depression Nine is improving as the ongoing shear diminishes, with the convection getting closer to the low-level center. However, recent scatterometer data indicates that the system has not yet become a tropical storm, and the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The cyclone is still moving fairly slowly, with the initial motion now 300/5. The subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to steer the system westward with an increasing forward speed for at least the next 2-3 days. After that time, there is some uncertainty in the track forecast due to the formation of a mid- to upper-level trough over the central Atlantic. The Canadian and UKMET models forecast the cyclone to slow down and turn northwestward near the end of the forecast period due to the trough, while the ECMWF and GFS show a continued westward motion. The track forecast follows the ECMWF/GFS scenario and shows a faster westward motion than the previous forecast. The new forecast also lies near the various consensus models. With the shear diminishing, conditions are becoming more favorable for the cyclone to strengthen during the next 72 h. However, there are still concerns about dry air entraining into the system. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast with the cyclone becoming a tropical storm in about 12 h and a hurricane in about 72 h. After 72 h, the system is expected to encounter another round of shear, which is expected to cause some weakening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 14.6N 36.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 14.7N 36.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 14.8N 38.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 14.8N 40.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 14.8N 43.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 14.5N 49.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 14.5N 55.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 13/1200Z 14.5N 60.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nine (AT4/AL092018)
2018-09-08 16:53:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 8 the center of Nine was located near 14.6, -36.0 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Nine Public Advisory Number 4
2018-09-08 16:53:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 861 WTNT34 KNHC 081453 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 36.0W ABOUT 1680 MI...2700 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 36.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the west and an increase in forward speed are expected later today and tonight, with a westward motion continuing into early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by early next week. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Nine Forecast Advisory Number 4
2018-09-08 16:53:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 862 WTNT24 KNHC 081453 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 1500 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 36.0W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 36.0W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 35.7W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.7N 36.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 14.8N 38.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 14.8N 40.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.8N 43.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 14.5N 49.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 14.5N 55.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 14.5N 60.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 36.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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