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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Public Advisory Number 1
2018-09-08 16:36:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018 327 WTPZ33 KNHC 081436 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018 ...ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE BUSY 2018 SEASON... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAND... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 115.9W ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eighteen-E was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 115.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. A slower motion toward the northwest or west-northwest is anticipated for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and could become a hurricane on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-09-08 16:36:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 326 WTPZ23 KNHC 081436 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182018 1500 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 115.9W AT 08/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 115.9W AT 08/1500Z AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 115.4W FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.6N 116.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.7N 117.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.9N 118.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.1N 119.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.5N 123.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 23.0N 126.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 24.5N 129.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 115.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Nine Graphics
2018-09-08 10:56:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 08 Sep 2018 08:56:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 08 Sep 2018 08:56:56 GMT
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Tropical Depression Nine Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-09-08 10:55:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 357 WTNT44 KNHC 080855 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 500 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 The depression continues to be affected by moderate to strong east to southeasterly vertical wind shear, which has resulted in the bulk of the deep convection being displaced to the west of the low-level center. The initial intensity has been held at 30 kt based on Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from both TAFB and SAB. The depression has been meandering in the same general area for the past 12-18 h due to being caught in a weakness in the subtropical ridge. However, recent microwave satellite data suggest that the cyclone is now moving slowly northwestward. A turn toward the west is expected to occur later today as a shortwave trough to the north that has weakened the ridge lifts out, allowing the ridge to fill back in and build westward to the north of the Lesser Antilles. The latest NHC model guidance suite remains tightly packed, and the official forecast track lies down the middle of the envelope near a blend of the consensus aids TCVA, HCCA, FSSE. Although the wind shear is forecast to gradually weaken and become less than 5 kt by 36-48 h, which would favor rapid strengthening, the airmass that the cyclone is embedded is fairly dry. Since mid-level humidity values are forecast to decrease from the current 60-percent range down to around 50 percent by 48 hours and beyond, only modest strengthening is expected during the next 4 days. By day 5, vertical wind shear from the southwest is forecast to increase to 20-25 kt, serving to cap the intensification process. The NHC intensity forecast is based on a blend of the IVCN and the HCCA consensus models, and continues to remain below the stronger HWRF model at days 4 and 5, which makes the cyclone a major hurricane in 78 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 14.3N 35.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 14.4N 36.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 14.5N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 14.7N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 14.6N 42.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 14.5N 47.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 14.6N 52.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 14.9N 57.2W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Nine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2018-09-08 10:55:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 330 FONT14 KNHC 080855 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 0900 UTC SAT SEP 08 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GRENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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