je.st
news
Tag: number
Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 19
2021-09-05 10:45:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 05 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 050845 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC SUN SEP 05 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 49.0W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB EYE DIAMETER 40 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT.......140NE 130SE 70SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 49.0W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 48.5W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.9N 50.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.2N 52.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.4N 53.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.6N 55.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 25.0N 56.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 26.5N 57.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 30.4N 60.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 36.5N 61.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 49.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Tags: number
larry
advisory
forecast
Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2021-09-05 04:34:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 05 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 050234 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0300 UTC SUN SEP 05 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 22(33) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 18
2021-09-05 04:32:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 05 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 050232 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0300 UTC SUN SEP 05 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 48.0W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB EYE DIAMETER 40 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT.......140NE 130SE 70SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 48.0W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 47.5W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.1N 49.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.5N 51.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.7N 53.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.0N 54.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.2N 56.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.8N 57.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 120SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 29.4N 60.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 35.1N 61.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 48.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tags: number
larry
advisory
forecast
Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 17
2021-09-04 22:56:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 04 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 042056 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 PM AST Sat Sep 04 2021 Larry remains a formidable hurricane this afternoon. Both visible and infrared satellite bands show the hurricane has a well-defined and warm eye (greater than 10 C) surrounded by a cold ring of eyewall convection (-60 to -70 C). An AMSR2 microwave pass received at 1630 UTC showed the well-defined eye of Larry, though the 89 GHz channel hinted that the eyewall was weaker on its eastern side. Taking a look at the high-density atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs), available thanks to a GOES-16 1-minute updating domain over Larry, there is some restriction of Larry's outflow to the southwest. Flight-level wind data from the NASA-DC8 aircraft conducting a research mission around Larry also showed some light southwesterly flow between 10-20 kt just a few degrees to the south and west of the storm center. These data suggest that the upper-level wind environment is not as pristine as earlier suggested by SHIPS guidance, with the southwesterly flow likely restricting Larry's outflow in that quadrant. The SAB/TAFB subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are unchanged from this morning, and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates have also plateaued in the 105-110 kt range. Therefore, Larry was maintained as a 110 kt hurricane this advisory. Larry remains on a west-northwest track this afternoon, but a bit slower at 300/12 kt. There has been little change to the track philosophy over the next several days, as the guidance is in good agreement that Larry will maintain a continued west-northwest heading while gradually slowing down as it rounds the southern periphery of a large mid-level ridge. However, there has been a notable eastward shift in the track guidance in the short-term. The latest ECMWF run, which had previously been on the southwest side of the track guidance envelope, is now very similar or even a tad east of the latest GFS run. This shift has also resulted in an eastward adjustment in the consensus aids this afternoon. The latest NHC track forecast was adjusted a bit to the right early on, but not as far right as the HCCA and TVCA aids. After 72 hours, the track guidance actually converges very close to the previous track forecast, and few changes were needed after this time period. Based on this forecast, Larry will continue moving across the central Atlantic in the coming days, and be approaching Bermuda from the southeast in the day 4 to 5 forecast period. The existence of some light upper-level southwesterly flow ahead of Larry today was bit of a surprise, since the SHIPS guidance from the last few days suggested the shear-vector would be out of the east and weak. Indeed, the latest ECMWF-SHIPS guidance now shows moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear beginning earlier, and peaking between 20-25 knots in 36 to 48 hours. While the GFS-SHIPS shear remains much lower, given what I'm seeing from the latest upper-level flow in front of Larry, the ECMWF seems closer to correct. For this reason, the latest NHC intensity guidance now shows a bit of weakening after 24 hours, when the shear magnitude is expected to peak as the hurricane interacts with a large tropical upper-tropospheric trough (TUTT) located to its northwest. However, Larry has a large and vertically-deep circulation, and ultimately it will win the battle against the more vertically shallow TUTT, which is forecast to cut off and move away from the hurricane's expansive upper-level outflow. By 60 hours, this change in the synoptic pattern should once again reduce the vertical wind shear over Larry, and it will have a chance to achieve a secondary peak between the 60-84 hour time-frame. However, eyewall replacement cycles could also occur at any time over the next 2-5 days, providing additional intensity fluctuations that make this a challenging intensity forecast. The latest NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one, but still remains higher than the latest HCCA consensus aid. Regardless of the details, Larry is expected to remain a large major hurricane over the next 3-4 days. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry are expected to first reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday and will spread to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda Monday and Tuesday. Significant swells will likely reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada around midweek. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the advice of lifeguards and local officials through the upcoming week. 2. Larry is forecast to approach Bermuda during the next several days, possibly as a major hurricane, bringing a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding to the island by the middle of next week. While it is too soon to determine the magnitude of these hazards and potential impacts on Bermuda, interests there should monitor changes to the forecast during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 17.4N 47.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 18.4N 48.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 19.8N 50.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 21.0N 52.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 22.2N 54.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 23.4N 55.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 24.7N 57.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 08/1800Z 28.3N 59.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 09/1800Z 33.4N 61.9W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin
Tags: number
discussion
larry
forecast
Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 17
2021-09-04 22:48:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 04 2021 364 WTNT32 KNHC 042048 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 PM AST Sat Sep 04 2021 ...LARRY IS A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG MANY WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 47.1W ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1510 MI...2425 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 47.1 West. Larry is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A somewhat slower west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast over the next day or so, followed by some intensity fluctuations. However, Larry is expected to remain at major hurricane strength through the early part of next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday, and will continue to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda Monday and Tuesday. Significant swells will likely reach the eastern United States coastline after Labor Day. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
Tags: number
public
larry
advisory
Sites : [150] [151] [152] [153] [154] [155] [156] [157] [158] [159] [160] [161] [162] [163] [164] [165] [166] [167] [168] [169] next »