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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2021-09-03 10:32:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 030831 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 11
2021-09-03 10:31:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 03 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 030831 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 AM AST Fri Sep 03 2021 ...LARRY SLOWLY STRENGTHENING... ...RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF FROM LARRY'S SWELLS INCREASES FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 38.9W ABOUT 970 MI...1560 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1530 MI...2460 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 38.9 West. Larry is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h) and this motion is expected during the next few days. A turn to the northwest is forecast by early next week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Larry could become a major hurricane by tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 11
2021-09-03 10:31:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 030830 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0900 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 38.9W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 100SE 40SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 38.9W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 38.2W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.2N 41.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 16.2N 43.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.3N 46.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.6N 48.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.8N 50.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.1N 52.5W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 23.8N 55.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 27.1N 58.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 38.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-09-03 04:33:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 02 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 030233 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 02 2021 A series of SSMIS microwave passes earlier this afternoon indicated that Larry may have been starting an eyewall replacement. However, the last pass at 2058 UTC suggested that the eyewall replacement failed, with the western part of the outer eyewall being eroded, possibly by some modest mid-level shear and some dry air, and the tighter inner eyewall trying to re-establish itself. As a result, the convective pattern has reverted back to a small Central Dense Overcast. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are now T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and T4.0/65 kt from SAB, and the latest objective estimates range from 72 to 78 kt. Overall these numbers have risen a bit, and Larry's maximum winds are now estimated to be 75 kt. Larry continues moving toward the west but perhaps slightly faster (280/17 kt). There is no change to the track forecast reasoning. A fairly stagnant pattern consisting of a strong mid-level high over the central Atlantic and broad-scale troughing over the eastern United States and western Atlantic should persist through the 5-day forecast period. Larry is therefore forecast to turn toward the west-northwest on Friday and then take on a northwest heading Sunday through Tuesday while it moves around the southwestern periphery of the high. The updated NHC track forecast lies right along the previous forecast and is very close to the various consensus aids. Low shear, gradually increasing sea surface temperatures, and the potential for an upper-level outflow jet to form north of the hurricane during the next 24-48 hours should support continued strengthening. During the first 48 hours, the NHC forecast shows a steady increase of 10 kt every 24 hours, close to the HCCA consensus aids and near the top of the guidance envelope. By days 3 and 4, there continue to be indications that increasing westerly or northwesterly shear could become a factor, and the NHC forecast therefore shows a leveling off of the intensity, with some slight weakening by the end of the forecast period. If Larry becomes a strong hurricane, eyewall replacements would also be a possibility, which would likely lead to difficult-to-forecast fluctuations in intensity. The leading swell front from Larry is expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday, increasing the risk of life-threatening rip currents and surf conditions on those islands early next week. Large swells are likely to spread to areas surrounding the western Atlantic later in the week as well. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 14.1N 37.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 14.5N 39.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 15.3N 42.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 16.4N 45.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 17.6N 47.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 19.0N 49.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 20.4N 51.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 22.9N 55.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 25.9N 58.0W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 10
2021-09-03 04:33:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 02 2021 370 WTNT32 KNHC 030233 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 02 2021 ...LARRY A LITTLE STRONGER... ...RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FROM LARRY'S SWELLS INCREASES FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 37.5W ABOUT 875 MI...1410 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1630 MI...2620 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 37.5 West. Larry is moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Friday morning. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later on Friday, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Larry could become a major hurricane by Friday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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