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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2021-09-04 22:48:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 04 2021 363 FONT12 KNHC 042048 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 2100 UTC SAT SEP 04 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 32(37) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 17
2021-09-04 22:46:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 04 2021 958 WTNT22 KNHC 042046 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 2100 UTC SAT SEP 04 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 47.1W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT.......140NE 120SE 70SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 47.1W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 46.5W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.4N 48.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.8N 50.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 21.0N 52.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.2N 54.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.4N 55.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.7N 57.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 28.3N 59.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 33.4N 61.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 47.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 16
2021-09-04 16:59:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 04 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 041459 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 04 2021 Overnight and this morning, Larry appears to have gone through a rather quick eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). The most recent 1000 UTC GMI microwave pass suggests that Larry now has a much larger eye and surrounding eyewall, with less evidence of concentric bands as noted yesterday. On geostationary satellite the larger eye is also becoming apparent on visible and infrared channels, though some left over inner eyewall debris remains. Consistent with the larger eye, an ASCAT-B pass received at 1226 UTC indicated that the 34-, 50-, and 64-kt wind radii have expanded with Larry this morning. While the most recent SAB and TAFB subjective Dvorak intensity estimates have remain at 90 kt and 100 kt respectively, the objective estimates are higher, with an earlier UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate up to 112 kt, though it has recently been adjusted lower. With the eye beginning to clear out on the most recent satellite images, I am favoring the higher objective estimates, bringing Larry up to 110 kt for this advisory. Larry's track has remained fairly steady toward the west-northwest, but just a touch slower and more poleward with the latest estimated motion at 300/13 kt. This west-northwest motion is expected to continue for the next several days with only a very gradual poleward bend as Larry remains positioned to the south of an expansive mid-level ridge extending westward ahead of Larry's expected path. As has been the case the last several days, the track guidance is in excellent agreement over the next 36-48 hours with more spread becoming apparent thereafter. As discussed yesterday, the increase in spread in the latter portion of the forecast appears to be related to how much mid-level ridging stays north of Larry. The ECMWF and its ensembles maintain more ridging that results in a slower and more westward track, while the GFS and its ensembles place more ridging east of Larry that results in a faster more eastward track. The UKMET favors a solution closer to the ECMWF while the Canadian favors a solution closer to the GFS. For now, the latest NHC track has elected to remain close to the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) which slightly favors the ECMWF solution over the GFS. This latest track forecast is quite similar to the previous one, but just a touch slower. Based on this forecast, Larry will continue moving across the central Atlantic in the coming days, and be approaching the latitude of Bermuda by the end of the forecast period. Conditions continue to remain favorable for additional intensification over the next few days, with vertical wind shear remaining under 10 kts, sea-surface temperatures gradually increasing, and mid-level relatively humidity staying fairly moist. However, by 48 hours, Larry will be impinging on the eastern edge of a large upper-level mid-oceanic trough, which could result in an increase in westerly vertical wind shear over the hurricane. However, the models handle Larry's interaction with this synoptic feature differently. The GFS suggests this upper-level trough will fracture to the west fairly quickly, keeping a more favorable upper-level pattern over Larry, while the ECMWF has a stronger trough that takes longer to give way to Larry's upper-level outflow, providing more westerly shear over the hurricane. Additional eyewall replacement cycles are also possible in the coming days, which could result in additional intensity fluctuations that are challenging to predict ahead of time. For now, the latest NHC intensity forecast keeps Larry intensifying over the next 24-36 hours, with only a very gradual decay thereafter due to the somewhat less favorable dynamical environment. The latest intensity forecast remains on the high end of the guidance, noting that there still remain higher outliers making Larry stronger than the 125 kt peak intensity (HAFS-B, COAMPS-TC). Regardless of the details, Larry is expected to remain a large major hurricane through the forecast period. Significant ocean swells generated by Larry's growing wind field are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles tomorrow, and then spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda on Monday and Tuesday. These swells could cause life-threatening rip currents and high surf conditions. Large swells are also likely to spread to the east coast of the United States by midweek. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 16.8N 45.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 17.7N 47.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 19.1N 49.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 20.3N 51.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 21.5N 53.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 07/0000Z 22.6N 54.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 23.8N 56.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 27.0N 59.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 31.6N 62.0W 100 KT 115 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin
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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2021-09-04 16:48:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 04 2021 653 FONT12 KNHC 041448 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 1500 UTC SAT SEP 04 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 34(37) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 16
2021-09-04 16:47:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 04 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 041447 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 04 2021 ...LARRY LARGER AND A LITTLE STRONGER... ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG MANY WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES NEXT WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 45.8W ABOUT 1055 MI...1700 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1600 MI...2570 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 45.8 West. Larry is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A gradually slower west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale and additional strengthening is forecast over the next day or two. Larry is expected to remain at major hurricane strength through the early part of next week. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday, and will continue to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda Monday and Tuesday. Significant swells will likely reach the eastern United States coastline after Labor Day. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
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