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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 13
2021-09-03 22:41:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021 381 WTNT22 KNHC 032041 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 2100 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 42.0W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......130NE 100SE 70SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 180SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 42.0W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 41.5W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.8N 44.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 70SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.9N 46.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 120SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.1N 48.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 19.4N 50.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 45SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 20.7N 52.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.9N 54.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 24.7N 57.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 28.7N 60.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 42.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2021-09-03 16:48:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021 583 FONT12 KNHC 031448 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 1500 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 12
2021-09-03 16:48:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 03 2021 291 WTNT32 KNHC 031448 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 03 2021 ...LARRY APPEARS POISED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER... ...RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF FROM LARRY'S SWELLS INCREASES FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES BY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 40.7W ABOUT 1090 MI...1750 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1410 MI...2270 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 40.7 West. Larry is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue over the next few days. A turn to the northwest is forecast by early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Larry is forecast to become a major hurricane this weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Larry are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 12
2021-09-03 16:47:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021 553 WTNT22 KNHC 031447 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 1500 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 40.7W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT.......130NE 110SE 70SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 180SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 40.7W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 40.0W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.4N 42.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 70SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.5N 45.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.6N 47.6W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.0N 49.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 55NE 45SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.2N 51.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.4N 53.6W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 24.2N 56.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 27.8N 60.0W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 40.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-09-03 10:33:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 03 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 030833 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 AM AST Fri Sep 03 2021 Larry continues to gradually become better organized. Satellite images show a fairly compact central dense overcast feature with an eye occasionally evident. Beyond the inner core, banding features are gradually becoming more distinct, especially to the south of the center. The latest Dvorak classifications at 0600 UTC was 4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB, and based on those estimates and the improving trend, the initial intensity is nudged upward to 80 kt. Larry is moving west-northwestward at 17 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. A continued westward to west-northwestward motion is expected on Friday and through the weekend as the hurricane remains on the south side of a mid-level ridge. By early next week, Larry is expected to slow down and turn northwestward when it reaches the southwestern periphery of the ridge. The models are in fairly good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. This forecast is largely an update of the previous one. The environmental factors appear favorable for steady strengthening during the next few days with wind shear remaining low and mid-level moisture fairly high. The only slightly negative factor is marginally warm 26-27 deg C waters that Larry will be moving over during the next couple of days, which should prevent rapid intensification. All of the models are in general agreement that Larry will become a major hurricane in a day or so with continued strengthening through day 3, and the NHC intensity forecast follows suit. Some weakening is shown by the end of the forecast period when the wind shear could increase a little. This forecast is very similar to the previous one and lies near the high end of the guidance envelope. It should be noted that eyewall replacement cycles are possible, which could cause intensity fluctuations that are challenging to predict. The leading swell front from Larry is expected to reach the Lesser Antilles on Sunday, increasing the risk of life-threatening rip currents and high surf conditions on those islands early next week. Large swells are likely to spread to areas surrounding the western Atlantic later in the week as well. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 14.6N 38.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 15.2N 41.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 16.2N 43.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 17.3N 46.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 18.6N 48.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 60H 05/1800Z 19.8N 50.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 21.1N 52.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 23.8N 55.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 27.1N 58.9W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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