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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2021-09-06 22:45:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 06 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 062045 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 2100 UTC MON SEP 06 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 61(61) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 63(68) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 38(39) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 33(39) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 8(31) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) 5(38) X(38) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 25
2021-09-06 22:44:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 06 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 062044 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 2100 UTC MON SEP 06 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 53.9W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT.......160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 300SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 53.9W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 53.6W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.4N 55.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.9N 56.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 26.5N 57.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 28.3N 59.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 30.4N 60.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 33.1N 61.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 41.2N 57.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 51.7N 46.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 53.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 24
2021-09-06 16:56:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 06 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 061455 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 06 2021 Larry currently has an annular structure, with a 60 n-mi diameter eye and a relatively thick eyewall. High-resolution visible imagery shows several meso-vortices rotating within the eye, which is typically observed in strong hurricanes. The upper-level outflow has become better defined over the western portion of the circulation, indicative of decreased shear in comparison to yesterday. The advisory intensity is kept at 105 kt, in reasonable agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Larry has slowed its forward speed a bit, and is now moving northwestward near 9 kt. There are no important changes in the track forecast or reasoning from the previous advisory. During the next few days, the hurricane is expected to move around the western periphery of a subtropical anticyclone over the central Atlantic, turning northward and northeastward. At this time, Larry is forecast to pass east of Bermuda and make its closest approach to the island on Thursday. Given Larry's large size, some impacts could be felt even if the center remains well east of the island as forecast. In 3-5 days, the cyclone should accelerate northeastward ahead of a large mid-tropospheric trough moving through the northeastern United States. The official track forecast follows the latest dynamical model consensus, and remains close to the previous one. Since the model guidance is in good agreement, this continues to be a high-confidence track forecast. Vertical shear is expected to remain low and the system will continue to traverse warm SSTs for the next few days. However, the presence of dry mid-level air and the broad nature of the hurricane's inner core will probably mitigate against significant restrengthening. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible for the next 48 hours or so. In 3-5 days, cooler waters and increasing shear should cause gradual weakening. Around the end of the forecast period, the global models show the system beginning to merge with a frontal zone near Newfoundland. The official forecast is on the high side of the model guidance suite and close to the latest Decay-SHIPS prediction. Key Messages: 1. Large swells generated by Larry are affecting the Lesser Antilles and will spread to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda today through Tuesday. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and beachgoers and other interests along these coasts are urged to follow the guidance of lifeguards and local officials this week. 2. Larry is forecast to approach Bermuda during the next few days as a large and powerful hurricane, bringing a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall, and coastal flooding to the island by the middle of this week. While it is too soon to determine the magnitude of these hazards and potential impacts on Bermuda, interests there should closely monitor the latest forecast updates during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 22.1N 52.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 23.1N 54.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 24.5N 55.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 25.9N 56.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 27.5N 58.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 09/0000Z 29.3N 59.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 31.6N 61.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 10/1200Z 38.6N 60.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 11/1200Z 49.0N 49.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2021-09-06 16:55:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 06 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 061454 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 1500 UTC MON SEP 06 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 51(51) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 56(56) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 16(39) X(39) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 24
2021-09-06 16:54:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 06 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 061454 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 06 2021 ...POWERFUL LARRY EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC SHORES LATER THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 52.9W ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 1015 MI...1630 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 52.9 West. Larry is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest and north on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Larry is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next couple of days. Thereafter, some gradual weakening is forecast. Larry is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Larry are affecting the Lesser Antilles and are expected to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda today through Tuesday. Significant swells should reach the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada by midweek and continue affecting these shores through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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