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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ida Public Advisory Number 29
2021-09-02 10:39:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Sep 02 2021
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Tropical Storm Larry Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-09-02 04:40:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 01 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 020240 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Larry Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 01 2021 Larry's strengthening phase appears to have taken a pause this evening. While an earlier 2055 UTC GMI microwave overpass indicated that the low-level structure was fairly impressive with a tight low-level eye-like feature, the deep convection waned briefly, but has since returned in a band around the eastern portion of the circulation. The various satellite-based intensity estimates have an unusually large spread from about 45 to 75 kt this evening. At the higher end of the estimates are UW/CIMSS ADT T-numbers of T4.5 and at the lower end were scatterometer wind data showing peak wind retrievals of about 45 kt. But given the small-inner core seen in the microwave data, there is likely some undersampling occuring with the ASCAT instrument. Subjective Dvorak data T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB were T3.5 (55 kt), and the latest SATCON estimate is 57 kt. The NHC initial intensity estimate leans toward the subjective Dvorak numbers and SATCON, and therefore remains at 60 kt, but there is larger-than-normal uncertainty regarding the initial intensity at this time. Larry is moving westward or 275/18 kt. The track forecast philosophy has not changed this evening. Larry is expected to move around the south and southwestern portion of a strong mid-level ridge that is anchored over the east-central Atlantic. This should steer the tropical cyclone steadily westward to west-northwestward during the next few days, with a turn toward the northwest by days 4 and 5 as Larry nears the southwestern portion of the ridge. The latest model envelope is largely unchanged through 120 hours, and the updated official forecast is very similar to the previous advisory. Although the track guidance is fairly tightly clustered there are some differences in how fast Larry will move across the tropical Atlantic, with the UKMET depicting the fastest forward speed. The NHC track forecast is slightly slower than the consensus aids to be in better agreement with the bulk of the guidance and the GFS ensemble mean. Conditions are expected to remain favorable for steady to rapid strengthening. Despite the recent pause in intensification, Larry is likely to resume strengthening later tonight, and the short-term portion of the intensity forecast is unchanged from before. Larry is forecast to become a hurricane by Thursday morning, and a major hurricane in 36-48 hours. That portion of the intensity forecast is in good agreement with the SHIPS guidance and is supported by the global model guidance which significantly deepen Larry over the next couple of days. After that time, there are some mixed signals on the amount of shear over the system with the GFS-based SHIPS guidance predicting moderate shear and some dry air, while the ECMWF-based SHIPS model diagnoses more favorable conditions. For now, the NHC intensity forecast shows a peak slightly higher than before by 72 hours, and then indicates little overall change in strength thereafter as some fluctuations in intensity could occur due to eyewall replacement cycles. The latter portion of the forecast is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 12.8N 30.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 13.0N 33.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 13.6N 36.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 14.2N 39.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 15.1N 42.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 04/1200Z 16.2N 44.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 17.4N 47.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 20.1N 51.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 22.9N 55.0W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2021-09-02 04:40:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 02 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 020239 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0300 UTC THU SEP 02 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 30.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Larry Public Advisory Number 6
2021-09-02 04:39:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 01 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 020238 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Larry Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 01 2021 ...LARRY'S STRENGTHENING PAUSES, BUT INTENSIFICATION LIKELY TO RESUME LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 30.9W ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Larry was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 30.9 West. Larry is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion should continue through Thursday night. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected Friday and Friday night. A slightly slower west- northwestward motion is expected on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Larry is expected to become a hurricane later tonight or early Thursday, and a major hurricane Friday or Friday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Larry Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-09-02 04:39:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 02 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 020238 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0300 UTC THU SEP 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 30.9W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 30.9W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 30.1W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.0N 33.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 13.6N 36.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.2N 39.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.1N 42.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.2N 44.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.4N 47.3W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 20.1N 51.4W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.9N 55.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 30.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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