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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2021-09-03 04:33:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 030233 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0300 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Hurricane Larry Forecast Advisory Number 10
2021-09-03 04:32:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021 782 WTNT22 KNHC 030232 TCMAT2 HURRICANE LARRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 0300 UTC FRI SEP 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 37.5W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 100SE 40SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 37.5W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 36.7W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.5N 39.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.3N 42.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 16.4N 45.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.6N 47.5W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.0N 49.7W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.4N 51.8W MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.9N 55.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 25.9N 58.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 37.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Larry Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-09-02 22:49:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 02 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 022049 TCDAT2 Hurricane Larry Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 PM AST Thu Sep 02 2021 This afternoon, Larry's appearance has evolved from a small central dense overcast to a tightly coiled spiral banding pattern, with these bands wrapping into the estimated center. I finally received a useful SSMIS microwave overpass at 1857 UTC which provided evidence that Larry could be undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). The imagery suggests a large outer eyewall is taking shape on the low-level 37-GHz channel, while an inner eyewall fragment is still seen on the mid-level 91-GHz channel. Despite these structural changes, the 1800 UTC subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were unchanged from this morning at CI 4.0/65 kt. In addition, the latest objective intensity estimates from SATCON and ADT have only varied slightly at 73 kt and 74 kt respectively. Taking a blend of the subjective and objective estimates still yields 70 kt for this advisory. Larry continues to move just north of due west, with the latest motion estimated at 280/16 kt. There is not much new to report with the track reasoning, with a large mid-level ridge currently north of Larry expected to steer the hurricane to the west or west-northwest over the next 2-3 days. Over time, the ridge axis is forecast to slowly shift further northeast of Larry's position, allowing the hurricane to gradually gain a more rightward component of motion by the end of the forecast period. In general, the track guidance remains tightly clustered for the first 2-3 days. There was a notable shift west in the latest 12z GFS deterministic track, while the 12z ECMWF shifted ever so slightly right. A quick look at the 12z ECMWF ensemble guidance reveals that the deterministic run is a bit to the northeast of the ensemble mean. The latest NHC track has been shifted slightly to the south and west of the previous track, following the reliable HFIP corrected consensus aid (HCCA) which also shifted a bit south and west this cycle. Once Larry completes the ongoing ERC, significant or even rapid intensification is anticipated. The short-term intensity forecast has been raised a bit more, since it appears more likely the present ERC will finish in the next 6-12 h. The latest NHC intensity forecast now makes Larry a major hurricane by tomorrow night, with further intensification up to Category 4 intensity anticipated by Sunday. Once again, there remains some discrepancy in the vertical wind shear forecast between the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance, with the ECMWF forecasting significantly more southwesterly shear beyond 72 hours. Both guidance tools also indicate a decrease in mid-level relative humidity which, if the shear materializes, could disrupt Larry's inner core structure. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast still shows gradual weakening from 72 to 120 hours. The latest intensity forecast is just a hair above HCCA in the short term, with the intensity forecast most closely following the latest COAMPS-TC (CTCI) guidance in the first three days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 13.7N 35.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 14.0N 38.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 14.7N 41.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 15.7N 43.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 16.9N 46.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 18.3N 48.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 19.7N 50.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 22.2N 54.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 25.1N 57.0W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin
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Hurricane Larry Public Advisory Number 9
2021-09-02 22:46:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 02 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 022046 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Larry Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 500 PM AST Thu Sep 02 2021 ...LARRY LIKELY TO BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 35.8W ABOUT 765 MI...1235 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Larry was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 35.8 West. Larry is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A gradual turn towards the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. A turn to the northwest is then expected by early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Significant to possibly rapid intensification is forecast during the next couple of days, and Larry is expected to become a major hurricane tomorrow night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Hurricane Larry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2021-09-02 22:46:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 02 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 022046 PWSAT2 HURRICANE LARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122021 2100 UTC THU SEP 02 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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