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Tropical Storm Fred Public Advisory Number 28
2021-08-16 16:39:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 161439 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 ...FRED EXPECTED TO BRING A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.2N 85.7W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning for the Florida Big Bend area is extended eastward to the Steinhatchee River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend from Navarre to the Steinhatchee River A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 29.2 North, longitude 85.7 West. Fred is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Fred should make landfall in the eastern Florida Panhandle this afternoon or early this evening, and move over western Georgia on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before landfall. After landfall, Fred is expected to quickly weaken. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A National Ocean Service observation site at Apalachicola, Florida, recently reported a wind gust of 37 mph (59 km/h). NOAA buoy 42039, located about 130 miles (215 km) south-southeast of Pensacola, Florida, recently reported a sustained wind of 56 mph (90 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is 993 mb (29.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through Monday... Southern and Central Florida... 1 to 2 inches of additional rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches are expected. Through Tuesday... The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected. Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas... 4 to 7 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 10 inches are expected. Through Wednesday... Portions of the Mid-Atlantic States... 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected as Fred interacts with a nearby front. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts. An increased risk of landslides exists across the mountains of North Carolina as well as portions of the Blue Ridge Escarpment on Tuesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...3-5 ft Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions have begun to occur in portions of the Tropical Storm warning area. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are affecting the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, and could causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across parts of the Florida Panhandle, southwest Georgia, and southeast Alabama. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Advisory Number 28
2021-08-16 16:38:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 161438 CCA TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 1500 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 CORRECTED CENTRAL PRESSURE. CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA IS EXTENDED EASTWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COAST OF FLORIDA FROM INDIAN PASS TO YANKEETOWN A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND FROM NAVARRE TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 85.7W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 85.7W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 85.7W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.5N 85.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.6N 85.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 35.0N 84.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 38.0N 82.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.2N 85.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 16/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Fred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28
2021-08-16 16:37:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 751 FONT11 KNHC 161437 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 1500 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT COLUMBIA SC 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ATLANTA GA 34 4 6(10) 8(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) AUGUSTA GA 34 4 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 4 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KINGS BAY GA 34 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WAYCROSS GA 34 11 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MAYPORT NS FL 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GAINESVILLE FL 34 9 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) DAYTONA BEACH 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ORLANDO FL 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 34 14 X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 80 2(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 16 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ST MARKS FL 34 80 X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) ST MARKS FL 50 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) APALACHICOLA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) APALACHICOLA 50 66 X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) APALACHICOLA 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 290N 850W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 850W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PANAMA CITY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PANAMA CITY FL 50 64 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) PANAMA CITY FL 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 49 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 11 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) COLUMBUS GA 34 19 24(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) COLUMBUS GA 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTGOMERY AL 34 11 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) WHITING FLD FL 34 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) PENSACOLA FL 34 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 290N 870W 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MOBILE AL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
PFAS Carbon Chain Length It is Just a Number or is It?
2021-08-16 14:07:00| Waste Age
The C-F bond strength may be the primary property that affects the complex nature of PFAS, but it is not the only property that affects how these compounds might behave in the environment, our bodies, and even during treatment. In chemistry, the numb
Tropical Storm Fred Public Advisory Number 27A
2021-08-16 14:00:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 161200 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 27A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 700 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.6N 85.8W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/ Jefferson County line A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 85.8 West. Fred is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected through today. On the forecast track, the center of Fred should move across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico today, and make landfall in the Florida Panhandle this afternoon or early evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast before landfall. After landfall, Fred is expected to quickly weaken. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through Today... Southern and Central Florida... 1 to 2 inches of additional rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches are expected.. Through Tuesday... The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected. Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas... 4 to 7 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 10 inches are expected. Through Wednesday... Portions of the Mid-Atlantic States...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected as Fred interacts with a nearby front. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...3-5 ft Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3 ft Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning later this morning. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle today, and could causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible early this morning over the Florida west coast and Panhandle, and during the late morning and into the afternoon from the Florida Panhandle northward into southwest Georgia and southeast Alabama. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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