je.st
news
Tag: number
Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Discussion Number 30
2021-08-17 04:48:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 778 WTNT41 KNHC 170248 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 The center of Fred has continued to move inland across the Florida Panhandle this evening, and is now located over extreme southeastern Alabama. Doppler velocities from NWS Doppler radars have gradually decreased and that data, along with recent surface observations, indicate that Fred is now a 35-kt tropical storm. Weakening should continue over the next several hours and Fred is expected to weaken to a tropical depression overnight. Additional weakening will occur on Tuesday while the circulation moves inland over Georgia and into the southern Appalachians. The global model guidance indicates that Fred's circulation will open into a trough of low pressure on Wednesday near the central Appalachians. Fred is moving north-northeastward or 015/10 kt. There is no change to the track forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. The cyclone should move north-northeastward at a faster forward speed between a mid-tropospheric ridge over the western Atlantic and a weak mid-level trough over the east-central United States. The new NHC track forecast is lies near the middle of the tightly packed dynamical model guidance. Although Fred is weakening, it is expected to bring flooding rains to portions of the southeastern and eastern United States during the next couple of days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and from western Georgia into the southern Appalachians. By the middle of the week, Fred or its remnants will lift northward and impact the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic. Landslides are possible across the mountains of North Carolina and Blue Ridge Escarpment on Tuesday. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds, primarily in gusts, will continue over inland sections of the eastern Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia during the next few hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 31.2N 85.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 17/1200Z 32.9N 84.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/0000Z 35.5N 83.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 18/1200Z 38.5N 81.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
storm
fred
Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Advisory Number 30
2021-08-17 04:47:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 170247 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0300 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STORM SURGE WARNING FOR THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANDHANDLE AND FLORIDA BIG BEND HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 85.2W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 85.2W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 85.3W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.9N 84.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 35.5N 83.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 38.5N 81.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.2N 85.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 17/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tags: number
storm
advisory
fred
Tropical Storm Fred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2021-08-17 04:47:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 170247 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0300 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 4 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST MARKS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COLUMBUS GA 34 17 X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Fred Public Advisory Number 30
2021-08-17 04:47:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 170247 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 ...CENTER OF FRED MOVES INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA... ...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT SPREADING INLAND... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.2N 85.2W ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM E OF DOTHAN ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of the Florida Panhandle has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning for the coast of the Florida Panhandle and Florida Big Bend has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 85.2 West. Fred is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Fred will move across western and northern Georgia on Tuesday, across the southern Appalachian Mountains on Tuesday night, and into the central Appalachians by early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and Fred should become a tropical depression overnight or early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. A wind gust to 53 mph (85 km/h) was recently reported at the airport in the Marianna, Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through Tuesday... The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected. Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 10 inches are expected. Through Wednesday... Portions of the Mid-Atlantic States...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected as Fred interacts with a nearby front. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts. An increased risk of landslides exists across the mountains of North Carolina as well as portions of the Blue Ridge Escarpment on Tuesday. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Tropical Storm Fred, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS41 KWBC or at the following link: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html STORM SURGE: Water levels along the Florida Gulf coast may remain elevated throughout the high tide cycle and subside thereafter. Consult products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office for additional information. WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, primarily in gusts will continue over inland portions of southeastern Alabama, southwestern Georgia, and the eastern Florida Panhandle for a few more hours. SURF: Swells generated by Fred affecting the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle should subside overnight. TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible overnight across parts of the eastern Florida Panhandle and southwest Georgia. The tornado threat will shift northward into parts of northeastern Georgia, the western Carolinas, and southern Virginia on Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Tropical Depression Grace Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-08-17 04:44:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 170244 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Grace Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 IR and microwave imagery during the past few hours indicate that Grace's convective organization has improved a little since this afternoon. However, it is currently unknown if that has translated to a better-defined surface wind field. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB at 00Z supported tropical storm strength, and it is possible Grace has redeveloped sustained winds of that magnitude. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Grace in a few hours, so it seems prudent to avoid making a big change before the plane gets there. Grace is therefore conservatively maintained as a 30 kt depression for this advisory. Regardless of Grace's exact intensity right now, the immediate threat is still torrential rainfall across Hispaniola overnight, which will likely cause severe flooding in some locations. The initial motion estimate is 280/12 kt. Confidence in the track forecast has increased considerably during the past 24 h and the track model spread is low. A mid-level ridge is forecast to build over the Gulf of Mexico during the next several days, which should keep Grace on a generally westward or west-northwestward track through day 5. Once Grace moves away from Haiti, it should remain over water until it reaches the Yucatan peninsula late Wednesday or early Thursday. Very little change was made to the official track forecast, which is based primarily on the multi-model consensus TVCN. Now that Grace is forecast to avoid all major land masses for the next couple of days, all of the intensity guidance calls for some strengthening to occur. That said, with the exception of the COAMPS-TC model, the intensity guidance as a whole shows a slower rate of strengthening than it did 6 h ago. The NHC forecast is now very near the IVCN intensity consensus throughout the forecast, including over the Gulf of Mexico where it continues to show Grace reaching hurricane strength. Despite the slightly lower guidance for this forecast, it still can not be ruled out that Grace will reach hurricane strength over the western Caribbean. When the hurricane hunter aircraft reaches Grace in a couple hours and provides more information about the current organization of cyclone, we should have a better feel for how quickly it could intensify prior to reaching the coast of Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall across the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the northern Yucatan Peninsula may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, with the potential for mudslides highest in Haiti and the Dominican Republic. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of Hispaniola overnight, and over Jamaica on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the southern coast of Cuba on Tuesday, spreading westward to the Cayman Islands and possibly other portions of the southern coast of Cuba Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. 3. There is a increasing risk of wind, rainfall, and storm surge impacts on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Interests there areas should monitor the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 18.2N 73.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 18.6N 75.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 19.1N 78.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 19.7N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 20.3N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 19/1200Z 21.0N 88.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 20/0000Z 21.6N 91.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 21/0000Z 22.2N 95.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 22.5N 100.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: number
discussion
grace
tropical
Sites : [277] [278] [279] [280] [281] [282] [283] [284] [285] [286] [287] [288] [289] [290] [291] [292] [293] [294] [295] [296] next »