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Tropical Depression Grace Public Advisory Number 12A
2021-08-16 13:56:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 161156 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING GRACE... ...FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 70.9W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Jamaica has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Jamaica. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of the Dominican Republic * Entire coast of Haiti * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches or warnings are likely later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 70.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will pass near the southern coast of Hispaniola today and tonight, and then between Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so. Slow strengthening is expected to begin by Tuesday. Data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dominican Republic today, in Haiti today into tonight, and in Jamaica on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides. Over Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands....2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches are expected through Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico over the next day or so, and will spread westward to Jamaica and the southern portions of Cuba. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Eight Public Advisory Number 2A
2021-08-16 13:32:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 161132 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 800 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.7N 62.8W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 185 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 62.8 West. The depression is moving toward the south near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue this morning. A slow clockwise turn toward the southwest and west is anticipated during the next couple of days, followed by a continued westward motion on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will pass to the southeast and south of Bermuda during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across Bermuda and the nearby waters on Tuesday, particularly to the south of the island. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Fred Public Advisory Number 27
2021-08-16 10:58:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 160858 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fred Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 ...FRED MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.9N 86.0W ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/ Jefferson County line A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 86.0 West. Fred is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected through today. On the forecast track, the center of Fred should move across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico today, and make landfall in the western Florida Panhandle this afternoon or early evening. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast before landfall. After landfall, Fred is expected to quickly weaken. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through Today Southern and Central Florida... 1 to 2 inches of additional rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches are expected.. Through Tuesday The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected. Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas... 4 to 7 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 10 inches are expected. Through Wednesday Portions of the Mid-Atlantic States...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected as Fred interacts with a nearby front. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...3-5 ft Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3 ft Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning later this morning. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are expected to reach the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle today, and could causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible early this morning over the Florida west coast and Panhandle, and during the late morning and into the afternoon from the Florida Panhandle northward into southwest Georgia and southeast Alabama. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Discussion Number 27
2021-08-16 10:50:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 160850 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 400 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 Earlier reconnaissance aircraft data and satellite imagery indicated that Fred's low-level circulation center briefly emerged out from underneath the southwestern edge of the convective cloud shield between 0200-0400 UTC. The circulation center, however, has recently moved back underneath the edge of the main region of convection, with a new bust of thunderstorms having developed over or near the low-level center. Having said that, Fred still remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with Tallahassee NOAA Doppler radar data indicating that the upper-level circulation at around 30,000 ft is tilted about 40 nmi northeast of the low-level center. The last reports from the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicated that the central pressure had risen from 999 mb to 1004 mb during the time the low-level center was fully exposed southwest of the deep convection. However, the pressure has likely fallen again now the center is back underneath the convection. An intensity of 45 kt is being maintained for this advisory based on the last reliable reconnaissance SFMR data of about 45 kt, which corresponds well with a T3.0/45 kt Dvorak satellite shear-pattern intensity estimate. Fred is moving northward now, or 355/08 kt. The latest NHC model guidance remains in excellent agreement that Fred will continue moving in a general northward motion today as the cyclone moves through a break in the subtropical ridge that is oriented east-to-west across northern Florida. Landfall is expected in the western Florida Panhandle region by late afternoon or evening today. The track guidance has shifted slightly to the east of the previous advisory track, and the new official forecast track has been nudged in that direction, but not as far east as the tightly packed consensus models owing to the strength of the ridge noted in 16/0000 UTC upper-air data. Fred is forecast to remain in moderate vertical wind shear conditions throughout the 48-h forecast period. However, the shear vector is expected to gradually back around from the current southwesterly direction to more of a south-southwesterly component right up until landfall occurs, which will align more with Fred's track direction. This reduction in the effective shear across the cyclone should allow for some additional strengthening until landfall occurs, with the distinct possibility that Fred could reach a peak intensity of 55 kt in 18 hours. After landfall, the combination of land interaction and the vertical shear increasing to more than 20 kt should result in rapid weakening, with Fred forecast to dissipate by 60 hours over the southern Appalachian Mountains. The official intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend over an area well east of the center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across the Southeast. By the middle of the week as Fred lifts northward and inland, heavy rainfall and flooding will impact the southern and central Appalachians, the Piedmont of the Southeast, and the Mid-Atlantic. 2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is possible along portions of the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for this area. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning later this morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 27.9N 86.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 29.1N 86.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 31.0N 85.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/1800Z 33.1N 85.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0600Z 35.6N 84.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Eight Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-08-16 10:50:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 160850 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 AM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 Satellite imagery and radar data from Bermuda indicate that the tropical depression located about 100 nmi east of Bermuda has been moving southward and also remains a sheared tropical cyclone -- the ongoing saga of the Atlantic basin thus far this hurricane season. Convection has increased and developed closer to the center and a late-arriving ASCAT-C overpass indicated surface winds of 26-27 kt to the south of the well-defined circulation center. Based on those data, the slightly improved convective structure noted in both satellite and radar data, and satellite classifications of T2.0/30 kt, the initial intensity has been increased to 30 kt. The initial motion estimate is 195/04 kt. The small cyclone is starting to make the clockwise turn toward the south-southwest and eventually southwest that the global and regional models have been advertising the past couple of days. The latest NHC model guidance now shows less of a turn to the northwest after 72 hours, with the exception of the GFS, GFS-ensemble, and HMON models, which continue to take the cyclone northward and northeastward around Bermuda on day 4 and 5. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track through 60 hours, and then widens the track slightly thereafter, but still shows a complete clockwise turn. This track scenario is to the right of the consensus models at all forecast periods, and is of low confidence on days 4 and 5. The vertical wind shear is forecast to remain at or below 10 kt for the next 36 hours or so, and that is most likely the time when the cyclone will strengthen. Thereafter, an increase in the shear to 20 kt or more is expected to cap the intensification process. The HWRF model turn the cyclone into a major hurricane by 72 hours, but this scenario is considered to be an extreme outlier given the amount of shear forecast to affect the system on days 3-5. So far this season, the HWRF model has been very shear resistant and has had a high intensity bias. The official intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the IVCN and HCCA consensus models through 60 hours, and then is below those models due to the high-bias contribution of the HWRF model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 32.4N 62.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 31.6N 63.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 31.0N 63.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 30.7N 64.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 30.7N 65.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 18/1800Z 30.8N 66.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 31.1N 68.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 32.0N 69.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 34.0N 68.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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