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Hurricane Linda Public Advisory Number 27
2021-08-16 22:46:56| Tropical Depression LIDIA
...LINDA A BIT WEAKER BUT STILL A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... Location: 17.7°N 124.6°W Max sustained: 100 mph Moving: W at 9 mph Min pressure: 974 mb Issued at 1100 AM HST Mon Aug 16 2021
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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Discussion Number 29
2021-08-16 22:46:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 162046 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 400 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 Radar data indicate that the center of Fred made landfall in the eastern Florida Panhandle a little while ago, and it is currently moving farther inland. Observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that the storm reached a peak intensity of 55 kt just before landfall. Assuming some weakening since crossing the coast, the current intensity estimate is 50 kt. Fairly rapid weakening will occur while the center moves over land, and the cyclone will probably be reduced to tropical depression status by tomorrow morning. The official intensity forecast for the next day or so is close to the latest Decay-SHIPS model guidance. Radar fixes indicate that the motion is north-northeastward, or 020/8 kt. During the next day or two Fred should move, with increasing forward speed, between a mid-level subtropical high pressure area over the southwestern Atlantic and a weak trough over the east-central United states. The official track forecast is quite close to the latest NOAA corrected consensus model prediction, HCCA. Although it is weakening, Fred is likely to bring flooding rains over portions of the southeastern and eastern United States during the next couple of days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across portions of the Florida Big Bend and Panhandle. By the middle of the week as Fred lifts north and inland, heavy rainfall and flooding will impact the southern and central Appalachians, the Piedmont of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Landslides are possible across the mountains of North Carolina and Blue Ridge Escarpment on Tuesday. 2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is ongoing along portions of the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region. 3. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coastline within the warning area over the next few hours and will continue to spread farther inland later today and tonight across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southwestern Georgia, and southeastern Alabama. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 29.9N 85.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 12H 17/0600Z 31.5N 85.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 17/1800Z 34.0N 84.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/0600Z 37.0N 82.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 18/1800Z 39.5N 80.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Linda Forecast Advisory Number 27
2021-08-16 22:46:40| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 16 2021
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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-08-16 22:46:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 162046 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 Deep convection has persisted near and southeast of the center of the small tropical cyclone today, and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were a consensus T2.5 (35 kt) at 1800 UTC. Objective estimates from ADT and SATCON also support tropical storm status, therefore the depression has been upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm with this advisory. Henri (ahn-REE) becomes the eighth named storm of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season. This is the fourth-earliest eighth storm on record with only 2020, 2005, and 1936 having the eighth-named storm form earlier in the season. Henri is located over warm waters, but is currently being affected by light to moderate northerly shear and dry mid-level air in the surrounding environment. Although these conditions are not overly conducive for strengthening, most of the intensity guidance supports gradual intensification over the next 24 to 48 hours. After that time, a significant increase in northeasterly upper-level winds is depicted by the global models over the system, which is likely to halt further strengthening. In fact, given the small size of Henri, it is likely to be more susceptible to the increase in shear, and it could weaken faster than indicated below. The HWRF remains more aggressive, but given the expected increase in shear, that solution still does not seem likely. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the LGEM model, and is slightly below the IVCN intensity consensus. The tropical storm is moving south-southwestward or 200/6 kt. Henri is forecast to move west-southwestward during the next 12-24 hours around the southeastern side of a mid-tropospheric high over the western Atlantic. After that time, Henri should turn westward as the ridge shifts eastward to the north of the tropical cyclone, and after 72 hours Henri is expected to approach the western extent of the ridge and should turn northward and then north-northeastward. The dynamical model guidance is in somewhat better agreement during the next 48-72 hours, but there remains some spread later in the period as to how sharp of northward turn occurs. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies near the center of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 31.0N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 30.5N 63.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 30.3N 64.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 30.2N 65.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 30.2N 66.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 19/0600Z 30.3N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 30.5N 69.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 31.8N 70.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 34.2N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Henri Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-08-16 22:45:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 162045 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 2100 UTC MON AUG 16 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BERMUDA 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 2(12) 2(14) 4(18) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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