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Tropical Storm Fred Public Advisory Number 28A
2021-08-16 19:48:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 161747 CCA TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Fred Intermediate Advisory Number 28A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 100 PM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 Corrected latitude in summary block. ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND FLOODING RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND REGION AS FRED APPROACHES THE COAST... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 85.5W ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Yankeetown A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Coast of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend from Navarre to the Steinhatchee River A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fred was located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 85.5 West. Fred is moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Fred should make landfall in the eastern Florida Panhandle this afternoon or early this evening, and move over western Georgia on Tuesday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall. After landfall, Fred is expected to quickly weaken. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. A wind gust of 58 mph (93 km/h) was recently reported at Bald Point, Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is 994 mb (29.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Fred is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through Monday... Southern and Central Florida... 1 to 2 inches of additional rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 5 inches are expected. Through Tuesday... The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected. Southeast Alabama through western and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas... 4 to 7 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 10 inches are expected. Through Wednesday... Portions of the Mid-Atlantic States... 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum storm totals of 6 inches expected as Fred interacts with a nearby front. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States could lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated river flooding impacts. An increased risk of landslides exists across the mountains of North Carolina as well as portions of the Blue Ridge Escarpment on Tuesday. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass, FL to Steinhatchee River, FL...3-5 ft Steinhatchee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...2-4 ft AL/FL border to Indian Pass including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the Tropical Storm warning area. SURF: Swells generated by Fred are affecting the coasts of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, and could causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across parts of the Florida Panhandle, southwest Georgia, and southeast Alabama. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Grace Public Advisory Number 13A
2021-08-16 19:35:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 161735 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 200 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 ...HEAVY RAINS FROM GRACE SPREADING WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN HAITI... ...RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES TO CONTINUE IN HISPANIOLA THROUGH TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 71.6W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch for the Dominican Republic has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Las Tunas, and Camaguey * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of Haiti * Jamaica * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas, as well as Isla de la Juventud. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of Grace. Additional watches or warnings are possible later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 71.6 West. Grace is now moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will move over or near the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti this afternoon and tonight, and then pass between Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Grace is expected to become a tropical storm again by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Haiti this afternoon into tonight, and in Jamaica on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the southern coast of Cuba within the warning area on Tuesday, and over the Cayman Islands beginning late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area Tuesday night and Wednesday. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides. Over Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches are expected through Thursday. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico over the next day or so, and will spread westward to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the southern coast of Cuba. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Eight Public Advisory Number 3A
2021-08-16 19:33:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 161733 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eight Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 200 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STILL MOVING SOUTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.1N 62.8W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 185 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 62.8 West. The depression is moving toward the south near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slow clockwise turn toward the southwest and then toward the west is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will move well to the south of Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across Bermuda and the nearby waters on Tuesday, particularly to the south of the island. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Fred Forecast Discussion Number 28
2021-08-16 17:00:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 161500 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fred Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 16 2021 Fred became better organized on satellite and radar images this morning, with the center fairly well embedded within a small CDO and a large convective band over the eastern portion of the circulation. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters found flight-level winds that supported an intensity of 50 kt, and data from the aircraft also found that the central pressure had fallen to 993 mb, although the most recent pressures appeared to have leveled off. The satellite and radar data also show a dry slot over the southeastern quadrant. Fred is over very warm waters of near 30 deg C and within a fairly moist mid-level atmosphere. A little more strengthening is possible prior to landfall, but significant southwesterly shear is likely to limit strengthening. Also, the storm has little time remaining over water. The latest official intensity forecast is similar to the LGEM guidance. Center fixes from the Hurricane Hunters and WSR-88D data from Tallahassee and Eglin AFB indicate that Fred is a little east of the previous track. It is not certain whether this is due to a slight reformation of the center nearer to the strongest convection, but that is certainly a possibility. Based on the most recent fixes, the current motion estimate is just slightly east of north, or 010/9 kt. Fred is moving between the western side of a mid-level subtropical high pressure area over the southwestern Atlantic and a weak trough over the east-central United States. A slight bend of the track toward the north-northeast with a little acceleration is expected during the next couple of days. The official forecast is just a bit to the east of the previous one, and follows the most recent multi-model consensus. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of Fred, since rainfall, storm surge, and wind hazards will extend over an area well east of the center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Through Tuesday, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated river flooding impacts across the Southeast. By the middle of the week as Fred lifts north and inland, heavy rainfall and flooding will impact the southern and central Appalachians, the Piedmont of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Landslides are possible across the mountains of North Carolina and Blue Ridge Escarpment on Tuesday. 2. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected along portions of the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend region. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the Storm Surge Warning area. 3. Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area and will spread farther inland later today and tonight across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southwestern Georgia, and southeastern Alabama. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 29.2N 85.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 30.5N 85.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 17/1200Z 32.6N 85.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 18/0000Z 35.0N 84.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 18/1200Z 38.0N 82.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Grace Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-08-16 16:55:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 161455 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Grace Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunters were both able to locate a center for Grace--probably the most well-defined center observed over the past few days. That center now appears to be moving onshore along the Barahona Peninsula of the Dominican Republic as we speak. The planes measured several possible areas of tropical-storm-force winds from the SFMR, however these observations have not been supported by the more reliable 925-mb flight-level winds for weaker systems, which were only as high as 38 kt, and warrant maintaining the 30-kt initial intensity. Dropsonde data indicate that the central pressure has fallen to 1007 mb. The aircraft fixes confirm that Grace is moving westward, or 280/13 kt. High pressure over the western Atlantic is forecast to slide westward over the southeastern United States during the next several days, which should keep Grace on a westward to west- northwestward trajectory for the entire 5-day forecast period. This scenario is agreed upon by all of the available track models, and the new NHC track forecast has only been nudged slightly southward from the previous forecast based on the latest consensus aids. Grace's intensity forecast remains complicated by interaction with land and the possibility of some westerly shear during the forecast period. However, the southern shift in the forecast track takes the center of Grace more definitively over very warm 30 degrees Celsius waters in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Therefore, gradual strengthening is anticipated while Grace approaches the Yucatan coast of Mexico. Once the system reaches the Gulf of Mexico, the shear appears to decrease, and conditions there will likely be conducive for additional strengthening. In fact, many of the models, including the consensus aids, bring Grace to hurricane intensity, and the NHC intensity forecast has therefore been bumped upward, bringing Grace very near hurricane strength by the end of the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall across the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands may lead to flash, urban, and small stream flooding, with the potential for mudslides highest in Haiti and the Dominican Republic. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of Hispaniola today and tonight, and over Jamaica on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the southern coast of Cuba on Tuesday, spreading westward to the Cayman Islands and other portions of the southern coast of Cuba Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. 3. There is a increasing risk of wind and rainfall impacts over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday. Interests there areas should monitor the progress of Grace and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 17.7N 71.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 18.2N 73.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...S COAST OF HAITI 24H 17/1200Z 18.8N 76.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 19.4N 79.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 20.1N 82.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 19/0000Z 20.9N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 21.6N 88.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...N COAST OF YUCATAN 96H 20/1200Z 22.5N 94.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 23.0N 98.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg
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