je.st
news
Tag: number
Tropical Depression Grace Public Advisory Number 15
2021-08-17 04:44:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 170244 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Grace Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 16 2021 ...EXTREME HEAVY RAIN CAUSING FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... ...GRACE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 73.8W ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the southern coast of the province of Pinar del Rio. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Las Tunas, and Camaguey * Cayman Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Entire coast of Haiti * Jamaica * Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, and Pinar del Rio, as well as Isla de la Juventud. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should monitor the progress of Grace. Watches may be required for portions of the Yucatan coast early Tuesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 73.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will continue to move near or over the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti during the next couple of hours, and then move between southeastern Cuba and Jamaica on Tuesday. Grace is forecast to move near the Cayman Islands Tuesday night and then approach the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Grace is forecast to become a tropical storm on Tuesday. Further strengthening is anticipated before Grace approaches the coast of Mexico in a few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in Haiti overnight, and in Jamaica on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the southern coast of Cuba within the warning area on Tuesday, and over the Cayman Islands beginning late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area Tuesday night and Wednesday. RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic...5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are expected across the southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides. Over far southern Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands....2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches are expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding. Over the northern Yucatan Peninsula...3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are expected Wednesday into Thursday, which may lead to areas of flash and urban flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola over the next day or so, and will spread westward to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, the southern coast of Cuba, and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
Tags: number
public
grace
advisory
Tropical Depression Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2021-08-17 04:44:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 170244 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 0300 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 5(22) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) LA PESCA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) LA PESCA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 16(28) TAMPICO MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) TAMPICO MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) TUXPAN MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) TUXPAN MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 2(27) X(27) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 25(40) 1(41) X(41) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) X(12) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 6(29) X(29) X(29) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 9(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 2( 2) 36(38) 2(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MONTEGO BAY 34 1 18(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) KINGSTON 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-08-17 04:41:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 170241 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 Bursts of deep convection continue to pulse over the southeastern portion of Henri's circulation. Although the tropical cyclone is still being affected by dry-air entrainment and light-to-moderate shear, the latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are a little higher than before, and a blend of those estimates yields an initial wind speed of 40 kt for this advisory. Henri is forecast to remain over SSTs of 28-29C throughout the forecast period, but the mid-level relative humidity is forecast to remain fairly dry, which is likely to only support gradual strengthening over the next day or so. After that time, a significant increase in northeasterly shear is anticipated, and that is likely to stop further strengthening. As mentioned in the previous advisory, given the small size of Henri, the tropical cyclone is likely to be more susceptible to this shear and it is possible that Henri weakens more than indicated below by day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the various statistical aids, and the CTCI and HMNI models. Less weight is again placed on the HWRF model, which remains quite aggressive in strengthening Henri over the next several days despite the expected increase in shear and dry mid-level environment. Henri is moving southwestward or 215/4 kt. The tropical storm is forecast to move in a counterclockwise motion over the next several days as it moves around a mid-tropospheric high that is forecast to shift eastward over the western Atlantic. This motion should take Henri south of Bermuda late Tuesday or Tuesday night. By 72 hours, the storm is expected to reach the western extent of the ridge and turn northward, and then northeastward by the end of the forecast period. There is still some spread in the guidance as to when and how sharp the turn will be. As a result, the NHC track forecast is a blend of the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models later in the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 30.7N 63.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 30.5N 63.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 30.4N 64.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 30.3N 66.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 30.3N 67.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 19/1200Z 30.5N 69.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 31.3N 70.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 32.8N 69.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 35.0N 66.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Tropical Storm Henri Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-08-17 04:41:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 170241 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0300 UTC TUE AUG 17 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) 3(13) 5(18) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Number 5
2021-08-17 04:41:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 170241 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM AST Mon Aug 16 2021 ...HENRI A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.7N 63.3W ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 215 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located near latitude 30.7 North, longitude 63.3 West. Henri is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion should continue through Tuesday morning. A turn toward the west is is forecast by Tuesday night, and a slightly faster westward motion should continue through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Henri should pass well to the south of Bermuda late Tuesday or Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Henri is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward only up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible across Bermuda and the nearby waters on Tuesday, particularly to the south of the island. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
Tags: number
public
storm
advisory
Sites : [278] [279] [280] [281] [282] [283] [284] [285] [286] [287] [288] [289] [290] [291] [292] [293] [294] [295] [296] [297] next »