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Tropical Storm Victor Public Advisory Number 11
2021-10-02 04:43:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 020242 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Victor Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 ...DISORGANIZED VICTOR WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 35.3W ABOUT 800 MI...1285 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 35.3 West. Victor is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue with a gradual turn more northwest over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Victor is now forecast to become a remnant low Monday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Advisory Number 11
2021-10-02 04:42:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 020242 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0300 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 35.3W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 60SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 150SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 35.3W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 35.0W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 13.2N 36.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 40SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.6N 38.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.5N 40.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.5N 42.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.6N 44.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.2N 46.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 35.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 38
2021-10-02 04:41:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 020241 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 The satellite appearance of Sam has degraded slightly during the past few hours, with the eye becoming more cloud filled and the eyewall cloud tops become a little less symmetric. Various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are in the 115-130 kt range, and based on the slight decay the initial intensity is lowered to 125 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate Sam. Sam is making its forecast turn toward the north-northeast with the initial motion now 020/15 kt. There is no change to the track forecast philosophy and little change to the forecast track from the previous advisory. The steering flow between a deep-layer ridge to the northeast and east of Sam and a large mid-latitude low pressure system centered over Atlantic Canada should cause Sam to turn northeastward during the next 24 h, followed by a continued northeastward motion as the system become entrained in southwesterly mid-latitude flow. The models are in fairly good agreement, although there is some spread in both the track and the speed due to model differences in the cyclone's evolution as it becomes extratropical. The new forecast track lies close to the center of the guidance envelope and the various consensus models. Slow weakening is expected to continue during the next 2-3 days as Sam moves over cooler sea surface temperatures and begins extratropical transition. This is likely to be complete by 72 h, with the global models suggesting that Sam will evolve into a warm-core seclusion extratropical low. Based on this and the guidance, it is likely that the cyclone will maintain hurricane strength until after the transition is done. By the end of the forecast period, the extratropical low is expected to be decaying over the far north Atlantic. The new intensity forecast lies at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda during the next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach the United States east coast and Atlantic Canada on Saturday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda during the next several hours, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 31.4N 61.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 33.5N 60.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 35.8N 58.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 37.7N 55.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 39.6N 52.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 04/1200Z 43.0N 47.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 47.2N 43.2W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 06/0000Z 50.5N 38.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 07/0000Z 54.5N 27.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 38
2021-10-02 04:40:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 020240 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 ...CORE OF SAM PASSING EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA... ...SWELLS EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.4N 61.2W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 61.2 West. Sam is now moving toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected by Saturday night, with this motion continuing through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Sam will pass well to the east of Bermuda during the next several hours. Maximum sustained winds are now near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although fluctuations in intensity are still possible, weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. However, Sam is expected to remain a major hurricane into Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). Several automated stations on Bermuda have recently reported wind gusts of 40 to 45 mph (65 to 75 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda tonight and early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda during the next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach the United States east coast and Atlantic Canada on Saturday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 38
2021-10-02 04:40:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 870 FONT13 KNHC 020240 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 0300 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 3(29) X(29) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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