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Tropical Depression Victor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2021-10-02 22:36:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 022036 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 2100 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Advisory Number 14
2021-10-02 22:35:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 022035 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 2100 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 38.0W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 30SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 38.0W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 37.5W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.9N 39.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.8N 41.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.9N 43.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.7N 45.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.5N 47.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 38.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 40
2021-10-02 16:51:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 021451 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 Sam has been an impressive hurricane during the past several days. The latest satellite imagery shows it remains a powerful system, with a well-defined eye and symmetric cloud pattern. In fact, since the plane left overnight, the eye has actually warmed, with little change in the eyewall convection. Thus the initial intensity will stay 115 kt, above the latest satellite classifications, but consistent with the earlier aircraft data and low bias of the Dvorak technique for much of the this storm. Sam is now in the top 10 for consecutive days as a category 4 hurricane or greater in the historical record, about the same as Matthew 2016. The hurricane is forecast to gradually lose strength during the next 36 hours or so while it remains over marginally warm waters, but in fairly light shear. In fact, some of the guidance decrease the shear overnight, which should allow Sam to keep much of its strength, provided it doesn't undertake an eyewall cycle. The new intensity forecast is higher in the first day or so, consistent with the latest model solutions. In about 2 days, Sam will cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream, and in 3 days is expected to spectacularly transition into a large hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone over the far north Atlantic. No changes were made to the end of the intensity forecast. Sam has turned northeastward at about 15 kt. The hurricane should accelerate later this weekend due to increasing flow between a deep-layer ridge to the east and a large mid- to upper-level low over Atlantic Canada. By midweek the system is forecast to turn more to the north-northeast as it becomes a spoke in a very large extratropical low over the far North Atlantic. The new forecast has shifted somewhat eastward during the first couple of days but ends up very near the last advisory by day 5. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the eastern United States coast and Atlantic Canada for the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 33.9N 59.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 35.6N 57.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 37.4N 55.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 39.2N 52.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 41.8N 47.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 46.0N 42.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 50.0N 38.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 06/1200Z 53.0N 33.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 07/1200Z 59.0N 26.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 40
2021-10-02 16:49:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 021449 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 ...STEADFAST SAM MAINTAINING CATEGORY 4 WINDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.9N 59.3W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ENE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 59.3 West. Sam is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). This general track with an increase in forward speed is expected for the next few days. On the forecast track, Sam will continue to move away from Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slow weakening is forecast during the next 36 hours, followed by more significant weakening early next week. Sam could become a powerful post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday. Sam is becoming a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 65 miles (100 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the eastern United States and Atlantic Canada for the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 40
2021-10-02 16:49:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 021449 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 1500 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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