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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Advisory Number 10
2021-10-01 22:40:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 012039 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 2100 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 34.3W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT.......120NE 60SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 90SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 34.3W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 33.8W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.7N 35.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 60SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.9N 37.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.6N 39.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...110NE 50SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.6N 40.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.7N 42.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 40SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.5N 44.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 24.5N 47.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 34.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER D. ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 37
2021-10-01 22:34:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 797 WTNT33 KNHC 012034 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 ...CORE OF SAM FORECAST TO PASS WELL EAST OF BERMUDA TONIGHT... ...SWELLS EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 61.8W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 61.8 West. Sam is moving toward the north near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast, at a slightly slower forward speed, is expected by tonight, followed by a northeastward motion Saturday night through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Sam will pass well to the east of Bermuda tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although fluctuations in intensity are still possible, weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. However, Sam is expected to remain a major hurricane through at least Saturday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda during the next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach the United States east coast and Atlantic Canada on Saturday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Nepaul
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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 36A
2021-10-01 19:44:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 011743 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Intermediate Advisory Number 36A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 200 PM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 ...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT SAM IS MAINTAINING CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH... ...CORE OF THE HURRICANE EXPECTED TO PASS WELL EAST OF BERMUDA TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.1N 61.9W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 61.9 West. Sam is moving toward the north near 21 mph (33 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast, at a slightly slower forward speed, is expected by tonight, followed by a northeastward motion Saturday night through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Sam will pass well to the east of Bermuda tonight. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although fluctuations in intensity are still possible today, weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. However, Sam is expected to remain a major hurricane through at least Saturday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 937 mb (27.67 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas this afternoon, and then spread to the United States east coast and Atlantic Canada on Saturday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Nepaul
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Discussion Number 36
2021-10-01 16:52:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 011452 TCDAT3 Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 01 2021 Sam remains a powerful category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale over the subtropical central Atlantic. Satellite images show that the hurricane still has a circular and quite distinct eye and closed eyewall. However, an 0827 UTC SSMIS pass indicated that a dry slot was present on the eastern side of the circulation between the eyewall and rainbands. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin range from 102-115 kt. However, Air Force reconnaissance data from earlier this morning showed that the winds were much higher, and in fact, the Dvorak estimates have had a low bias compared to the Hurricane Hunter data for the past 24-36 hours. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 130 kt for now. Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Sam this afternoon. An ASCAT-A pass from around 12Z indicated that Sam's tropical-storm-force wind radii have expanded, and the initial wind radii were adjusted based on that data. In addition, the eye of Sam passed about 60 n mi east of NOAA buoy 41049 earlier this morning. The buoy reported a minimum pressure of 998 mb, maximum winds of around 45 kt, gusts to 62 kt, and maximum seas of about 22 ft. The major hurricane has turned to the north and is now moving faster. The latest initial motion estimate is 355/18 kt. The large-scale pattern consists of a deep-layer ridge to the northeast of Sam and a large low pressure system centered over Atlantic Canada. The steering flow between these features should cause Sam to move northeastward at a sightly slower pace this weekend. By early next week, the deep-layer low is expected to retreat northward, which should cause Sam to turn a little more to the right. The models are in fairly good agreement, but there are some notable speed differences with the UKMET model being a fast outlier. The new NHC track forecast is slightly to the right of the previous one at 60 and 72 h, but is otherwise very similar. This forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. Sam is expected to slowly weaken during the next several days as it moves over progressively cooler waters and into an environment of stronger shear. The hurricane will likely begin extratropical transition in a couple of days when it crosses the 26 degree C isotherm, and this transition is expected to be completed by 96 hours. All of the model guidance shows steady weakening through the forecast period, and so does the NHC forecast. This prediction is close to the IVCN, IVDR, and HCCA models in the short term and near the GFS model during the extratropical portion of the forecast. Even though Sam is likely to weaken, it is still expected to be a significant storm over the next several days. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands and the Greater Antilles, including Puerto Rico, during the next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach Bermuda and the Bahamas this afternoon, and then spread to the United States east coast and Atlantic Canada on Saturday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Bermuda beginning tonight or early Saturday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the island. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 28.4N 61.8W 130 KT 150 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 30.7N 61.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 33.4N 60.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 35.6N 58.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 37.2N 56.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 38.7N 52.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 41.9N 48.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 49.0N 42.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 06/1200Z 51.0N 34.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Nepaul
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Hurricane Sam Wind Speed Probabilities Number 36
2021-10-01 16:52:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 011452 PWSAT3 HURRICANE SAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 1500 UTC FRI OCT 01 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SAM WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 33(37) 1(38) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) BERMUDA 34 4 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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