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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Discussion Number 17
2021-10-03 16:40:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 031440 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 Despite persistent southwesterly vertical wind shear, Victor has managed to maintain an area of deep convection to the northeast of its low-level center through the morning hours. The latest objective and subjective satellite estimates range from 30-35 kt. However, an ASCAT-A pass from 1110 UTC indicates the increasingly elongated center of Victor is about 45 n mi south of previous estimates, which puts the center farther away from the edge of the convective overcast. Although a few 35-kt ASCAT wind vectors are noted, these retrievals are collocated with the most intense convection and appear artificially high when compared to the surrounding 20 to 30-kt wind field. Thus, the initial intensity of Victor is held at 30 kt for this advisory. The SHIPS guidance indicates 15-20 kt of vertical wind shear will persist over Victor today, with even stronger shear expected on Monday. Additionally, the dry mid-level environment that Victor is embedded within appears unfavorable for sustaining deep convection. Therefore, gradual weakening is expected early this week, and Victor is forecast to lose its convection and degenerate into a remnant low by late Monday. Another plausible scenario is that Victor's low-level center continues to lose definition and the system opens up into a trough with the next couple of days. Either way, Victor does not appear to have much of a future. A subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic is steering Victor northwestward, or 310/10 kt. A northwestward motion is expected to continue through dissipation as Victor moves around the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. Although the track reasoning has not changed, the official NHC forecast track lies to the left of the previous advisory due to the center relocation described above. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 16.1N 40.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 17.6N 41.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 19.5N 43.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 21.1N 45.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1200Z 22.4N 48.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Tropical Depression Victor Public Advisory Number 17
2021-10-03 16:37:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 031437 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Victor Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 ...VICTOR STILL A SHEARED TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY LATE MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 40.3W ABOUT 1080 MI...1740 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Victor was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 40.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Victor is forecast to become a remnant low by late Monday and dissipate on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
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Tropical Depression Victor Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2021-10-03 16:37:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 031437 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 1500 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Advisory Number 17
2021-10-03 16:37:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 031437 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 1500 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 40.3W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 30SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 40.3W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 39.9W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.6N 41.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.5N 43.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.1N 45.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.4N 48.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 40.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Discussion Number 16
2021-10-03 10:58:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 030858 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 AM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 Victor remains a sheared tropical cyclone with intense deep convection having developed closer to the center in the northeastern quadrant since the previous advisory. Satellite intensity estimates remain at T2.0/30 kt, so the advisory intensity remains at 30 kt. It is possible that Victor could have regained tropical storm status based on the robust convective shear pattern. For now, however, Victor will remain a depression until new ASCAT surface wind data arrive later this morning. Some fluctuations in intensity could occur this morning due to the aforementioned better defined shear pattern. By tonight, however, weakening is anticipated as Victor encounters southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 25 kt and moves into a drier air mass, which will act to decrease both the depth and amount of inner-core deep convection. Victor is expected to gradually spin down tonight and Monday, with the circulation opening up into a trough on Tuesday. Victor continues to move northwestward, or 315/14 kt. A motion toward the northwest is forecast to continue as Victor remains embedded within the southeasterly flow around a deep-layer subtropical ridge. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies near the tightly clustered consensus track models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 16.1N 39.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 17.6N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 19.6N 43.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1800Z 21.3N 45.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/0600Z 22.8N 47.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 05/1800Z 24.3N 49.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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