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Tropical Depression Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 27
2021-08-06 10:36:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 060836 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0900 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 133.3W AT 06/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 133.3W AT 06/0900Z AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 132.8W FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 134.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.6N 136.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.1N 137.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 133.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 26
2021-08-06 04:34:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 060234 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Hilda Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021 The low-level center of Hilda has been partially exposed in visible satellite imagery as the system struggles to sustain any organized convection. Although a scatterometer pass around 1830 UTC showed winds near tropical-storm-force in the northeastern quadrant, the satellite presentation of Hilda has continued to deteriorate during the past several hours. Therefore, the initial intensity is maintained at 30 kt for this advisory. Gradual weakening is expected over the next day or so as Hilda moves over even cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment. These conditions should suppress new convective development, as suggested by the latest GFS and ECMWF model simulated satellite imagery. Thus, the latest NHC official forecast shows Hilda degenerating into a remnant low on Friday. Thereafter, the weakening remnant low is forecast to open up into a trough on Saturday, well east of the Hawaiian Islands. Hilda is moving northwestward or 305/11 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn more west-northwestward overnight and maintain this heading through dissipation as it moves along the southern periphery of a low-level ridge to its north. The track models are still tightly clustered, and the official NHC forecast has only been adjusted to reflect the slower forward speed noted in the latest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 22.2N 132.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 22.8N 133.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 23.5N 135.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1200Z 24.0N 137.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Hilda Public Advisory Number 26
2021-08-06 04:33:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 060233 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Hilda Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021 ...HILDA STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.2N 132.2W ABOUT 1420 MI...2290 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Hilda was located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 132.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west-northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next day or so, and Hilda is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Friday and dissipate on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Hilda Forecast Advisory Number 26
2021-08-06 04:33:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 060233 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 0300 UTC FRI AUG 06 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 132.2W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 132.2W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 131.7W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.8N 133.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.5N 135.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.0N 137.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 132.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Jimena Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-08-06 04:31:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 060231 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Jimena Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 500 PM HST Thu Aug 05 2021 Jimena is approaching the Central Pacific basin. The compact tropical storm has generally changed little during the past several hours, and it continues to have curved bands that wrap across the western half of the circulation. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and the University of Wisconsin range from 35 to 45 kt. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, but Jimena could be a little stronger. Unfortunately, all of the ASCAT passes missed the system earlier today, but new data from the instrument may be available tonight. The storm continues to move northwestward at about 6 kt. A gradual turn to the left, or toward the west, is expected during the next few days as the storm loses deep convection and is steered primarily by the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the south of the previous one, trending toward the latest guidance. Jimena has now crossed the 26 C isotherm and is expected to move over progressively cooler waters during the next couple of days. These cool waters combined with a drier airmass and an increase in shear should cause steady weakening. Jimena is expected to become a remnant low by 36 hours and dissipate in a few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 16.9N 137.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 17.5N 138.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 18.2N 140.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 18.7N 141.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0000Z 19.0N 143.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/1200Z 19.4N 144.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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