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Tropical Storm Jimena Forecast Advisory Number 12
2021-08-05 22:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 052031 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 2100 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 137.6W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 137.6W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 137.3W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.0N 138.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.9N 139.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.8N 141.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.7N 142.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.2N 143.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 137.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Jimena Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2021-08-05 22:32:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 052031 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM JIMENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 2100 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 137.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 140W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tropical Depression Hilda Forecast Discussion Number 25
2021-08-05 22:31:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 052031 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Hilda Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021 Stubborn Hilda refuses to go away. Convection has been pulsing since the previous advisory with cloud tops fluctuating between -30C and -60C in the northeastern quadrant. However, this convection hasn't mixed higher winds downward into the boundary based on a 1634Z ASCAT-A scatterometer pass, which showed 30-31-kt wind vectors north of the center and outside of the convection. The initial intensity is being maintained at 30 kt for this advisory based on the aforementioned ASCAT surface wind data. Gradual weakening should occur now that Hilda is firmly located over sub-23 deg C sea-surface temperatures and will be moving into a drier and more stable air mass. Visible satellite imagery already shows an extensive field of cold-air stratocumulus clouds being entrained into much of the low-level circulation. Hilda is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low tonight or early Friday, and open up into a trough by the weekend, well east of the Hawaiian Islands. The initial motion estimate is 300/11 kt. Hilda should continue on a west-northwestward trajectory for the next couple of days, being steered by a deep-layer subtropical ridge to the north. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 21.5N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 22.2N 132.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 23.0N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0600Z 23.7N 137.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1800Z 24.4N 139.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Hilda Public Advisory Number 25
2021-08-05 22:31:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 052030 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Hilda Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082021 200 PM PDT Thu Aug 05 2021 ...HILDA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW BY FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 131.2W ABOUT 1365 MI...2195 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Hilda was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 131.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Hilda is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by late tonight or early Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Hilda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2021-08-05 22:31:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 052030 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082021 2100 UTC THU AUG 05 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 131.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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