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Hurricane Elsa Public Advisory Number 11
2021-07-03 04:59:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 030259 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Elsa Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS ELSA A LITTLE WEAKER... ...HURRICANE EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN BY LATE SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 66.3W ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM ESE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Netherlands has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Saba and Sint Eustatius. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti * Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince * South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to Cabo Engano A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Bahia de Manzanillo * Cayman Brac and Little Cayman A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required on Saturday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 66.3 West. Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 29 mph (46 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A decrease in forward speed is expected Saturday night and Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight across the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola late Saturday or Saturday night. By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba, and move near portions of central and western Cuba Sunday night and Monday. Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast tonight, with some restrengthening expected on Saturday. Slow weakening is expected to begin Saturday night or Sunday as Elsa interacts with Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data from the aircraft is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in Haiti and the Dominican Republic by late Saturday. Hurricane conditions are expected on Jamaica late Saturday or Sunday, and are possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...4 to 6 feet Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet Jamaica...1 to 3 feet RAINFALL: The outer rain bands associated with Elsa will begin to impact Puerto Rico tonight with rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches possible through Saturday. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is possible Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides. By early next week, Elsa is expected to impact portions of the Cayman Islands and Cuba producing 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart/Papin
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Hurricane Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 11
2021-07-03 04:58:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUL 03 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 030258 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 0300 UTC SAT JUL 03 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA PALENQUE TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * JAMAICA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT AU PRINCE * SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EAST OF PUNTA PALENQUE TO CABO ENGANO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO BAHIA DE MANZANILLO * CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ON SATURDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 66.3W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......130NE 120SE 30SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 30SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 66.3W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 65.1W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.1N 69.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 30SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.6N 73.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 30SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.0N 76.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 30SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.5N 78.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.1N 80.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.7N 81.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 27.7N 82.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 32.4N 80.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 66.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART/PAPIN
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Hurricane Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-07-03 04:57:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 030257 TCDAT5 Hurricane Elsa Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that Elsa has weakened slightly, and that the flight-level and surface centers are not vertically aligned. The maximum 700-mb wind speed measured was 75 kt and the highest SFMR surface wind sampled was 61 kt in the northeastern quadrant. However, these data were collected outside of the strongest convection that was occurring just east of the flight track, so the intensity has only been lowered to 70 kt, which is supported by the slightly higher central pressure of 995 mb sampled by a dropsonde. The initial motion estimate now is 285/25 kt. There remains little significant change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. The latest 00Z model guidance has become more convergent and now lies nearly on top of the previous advisory track. Over the last 48 h, the ECMWF model has steadily shifted Elsa's track westward by about 1 degree of longitude each model cycle, with the latest ECMWF forecast track now being located about 240 nmi west of its forecast track two days ago. As a result, less weight has been placed on the ECMWF solution for this advisory. However, even its latest solution no longer takes Elsa over the heart of Hispaniola. Elsa should continue to move generally west-northwestward for the next 48 h, accompanied by a slow but steady decrease in forward speed. By the time the hurricane nears southern Cuba, the forward speed should be less than 15 kt. Thereafter, Elsa should gradually turn northwestward and eventually northward through a developing weakness in the subtropical ridge This motion should take Elsa across Cuba and over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or the nearby Florida Peninsula on day 4, followed by a motion over the coastal regions of the southeastern United States on day 5. The new NHC forecast track is essentially just an update of the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the GFS, UKMET, and HWRF models, and the TVCA simple consensus model. Elsa's fast forward speed and recent entrainment of dry mid-level air into the western semicircle has eroded some of the inner-core convection, resulting in the aforementioned weakening. In fact, NOAA G-IV dropsondes launched around 2100 UTC northwest of Elsa indicated a significant dry-air layer between 400-500-hPa that may have been imported by moderate northwesterly mid-level shear. However, as the cyclone's forward speed steadily decreases, the low-, mid-, and upper-level circulations should become more vertically aligned, which should allow for at least some slight re-strengthening during the next 24 h or so. Possible interaction with the landmasses of Haiti, southeastern Cuba, and Jamaica is the primary reason for not showing a more robust intensity forecast given the very warm water beneath the hurricane and a very favorable upper-level wind flow regime. The latest GFS and UKMET models indicate that Elsa will be moving into the center of a 300-200-mb synoptic-scale anticyclone, which would produce enhanced outflow jets to the north and south of the cyclone, resulting in significant strengthening. If Elsa ends up 'threading-the-needle' between Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba, then subsequent intensity forecasts may have to be increased similar to the much stronger HWRF model. For now, the official NHC intensity forecast maintains continuity with the previous advisory, and shows only slight re-strengthening due to possible interaction with land. It should be noted that the average NHC track errors are 175 miles and 200 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. Given the larger-than-normal uncertainty and because hazards will extend well away from the center of the storm, users are urged to not focus on the exact forecast points. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected within the Hurricane Warning areas in Haiti and the Dominican Republic beginning Saturday and in Jamaica beginning Sunday. 2. The outer rain bands from Elsa will impact Puerto Rico by late tonight, with widespread heavy rain moving into southern Hispaniola and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides are possible. Through early next week, heavy rain is expected to impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba resulting in significant flooding with mudslides possible in Cuba. 3. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are possible in portions of eastern Cuba beginning early Sunday where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. There is an increasing risk of wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts elsewhere in Cuba Sunday and Monday. 4. There is an increasing risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and spreading northward along the Florida Peninsula through Tuesday. However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba this weekend. Interests throughout Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 14.8N 66.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 16.1N 69.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 17.6N 73.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 19.0N 76.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 20.5N 78.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 22.1N 80.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 72H 06/0000Z 23.7N 81.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 07/0000Z 27.7N 82.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 32.4N 80.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart/Papin
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Hurricane Elsa Public Advisory Number 10A
2021-07-03 01:58:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 022358 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 800 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 ...ELSA MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE... ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ELSA... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 65.1W ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM ESE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia. The Government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Martinique. The Meteorological Service of Trinidad and Tobago has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Grenada And Its Dependencies. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti * Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince * South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to Cabo Engano A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Saba and Sint Eustatius * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Bahia de Manzanillo * Cayman Brac and Little Cayman A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 65.1 West. Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 30 mph (48 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A decrease in forward speed is expected Saturday night and Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight across the central Caribbean Sea on Saturday, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola late Saturday or Saturday night. By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba, and move near portions of central and western Cuba Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Saturday. Slow weakening is expected to begin Saturday night or Sunday as Elsa interacts with Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Cuba. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.38 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in the northern Leeward Islands for the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in Haiti and the Dominican Republic by late Saturday. Hurricane conditions are expected on Jamaica late Saturday or Sunday, and are possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...4 to 6 feet Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet Jamaica...1 to 3 feet RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, this evening. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall with decrease across this area by early Saturday morning. Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches is expected tonight into Saturday. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is possible Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides. By early next week, Elsa is expected to impact portions of the Cayman Islands and Cuba producing 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart/Papin
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Hurricane Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-07-02 23:47:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 022147 CCA TCDAT5 Hurricane Elsa Discussion Number 10...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 Corrected motion heading in second paragraph. Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Elsa has strengthened a little more since the last advisory, with a combination of flight-level winds, SFMR surface wind estimates, and dropsonde data showing that the maximum winds are near 75 kt. The aircraft also reported that the 700-mb circulation remains somewhat disorganized, and that the 700-mb center is not vertically aligned with with the surface center. The former issue is likely due to the rapid motion, and the latter may be due to the effects of westerly shear. The initial motion now is 280/26. There is again little change to the forecast track or the forecast guidance. The guidance is in good agreement on a rapid west-northwestward notion to near the south coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti by 24-30 h, followed by a continued west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed through 48 h. After that time, Elsa should gradually turn northwestward and eventually northward as it moves through a weakness in the subtropical ridge created by a mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States. This motion should take the cyclone across Cuba and over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or the nearby Florida Peninsula, eventually moving into the southeastern United States by the end of the period. The track guidance is a little less divergent than earlier, but there is still enough spread in the potential tracks that this part of the forecast remains low confidence. The latest global model runs and the associated intensity guidance are forecasting a less favorable environment for Elsa during the next several days. The SHIPS model now calls for 10-20 kt of northwesterly shear during the next 48 h, and 15-25 kt of shear after 60 h. In addition, the 12Z GFS forecasts a considerably weaker storm than its last several runs. The intensity forecast thus calls for little change in strength during the first 24 h, although it is possible the hurricane could strengthen a little more during that time. After that, land interaction and shear are likely to cause weakening until Elsa emerges into the Gulf of Mexico. However, the HWRF still calls for Elsa to intensify into a Category 3 hurricane, and like the track forecast the intensity forecast remains of low confidence due to the spread in the guidance. It should be noted that the average NHC track errors are 175 miles and 200 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. Given the larger-than-normal uncertainty and because hazards will extend well away from the center of the storm, users are urged to not focus on the exact forecast points. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected within the Hurricane Warning areas in Haiti and the Dominican Republic beginning Saturday and in Jamaica beginning Sunday. 2. Heavy rainfall will gradually subside across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands tonight, including Barbados. Outer rain bands will impact Puerto Rico by late tonight, and affect southern Hispaniola and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides are possible. By early next week, heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Significant flooding and mudslides are possible. 3. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are possible in portions of eastern Cuba beginning early Sunday where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. There is an increasing risk of wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts elsewhere in Cuba Sunday and Monday. 4. There is an increasing risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and spreading northward along the Florida Peninsula through Tuesday. However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba this weekend. Interests throughout Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 14.2N 63.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 15.4N 67.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 17.0N 71.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 18.3N 74.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 19.9N 77.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/0600Z 21.4N 79.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 05/1800Z 22.9N 81.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 96H 06/1800Z 26.5N 83.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 07/1800Z 31.6N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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