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Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Public Advisory Number 1A

2021-07-01 01:42:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 800 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 302342 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 800 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021 ...DISTURBANCE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.6N 44.6W ABOUT 1135 MI...1825 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines * St. Lucia * Barbados * Martinique * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti should monitor the progress of this system. Warnings and additional watches will likely be required tonight and on Thursday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 9.6 North, longitude 44.6 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or early Thursday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical-storm conditions are possible in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands on Friday. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone will produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches on Friday across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may produce isolated flash flooding and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown/Papin

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Forecast Discussion Number 1

2021-06-30 22:54:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 302054 TCDAT5 Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that the convection associated with the low pressure area over the central tropical Atlantic is becoming better organized. However, earlier scatterometer data showed that the circulation was elongated and not well defined. Since the system is about 48 h away from the Lesser Antilles and is expected to become a tropical storm before reaching the islands, advisories are being initiated at this time on Potential Tropical Cyclone Five. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on the scatterometer data and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The initial motion is 285/18. The disturbance is currently on the south side of a strong subtropical ridge, and for the next 72 h the system should move rapidly west-northwestward. Indeed, the forward speed may exceed 25 kt as the system moves through the Lesser Antilles. There is excellent agreement in the guidance on this part of the forecast track. After 72 h, the system is expected to approach a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States. The should cause the system to slow its forward speed and turn more northwestward. The track guidance become more diverse during this time in regards to how far north the system will turn, and this part of the NHC forecast track is most similar to the GFS and UKMET forecasts. Note that the track forecast is more uncertain than usual since the system does not yet have a well-defined center. The disturbance is currently in a favorable upper-level wind pattern. However, most Atlantic systems in this area moving near 25 kt have trouble strengthening, and there are indications that the fast forward speed may produce some westerly shear. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast for the first 72 h is near the lower edge of the intensity guidance. After 72 h, the intensity forecast becomes highly uncertain due to possible land interaction and differences in the model forecasts of the upper-level winds. This portion of the NHC intensity forecast maintains a constant 50-kt intensity due to the level of uncertainty. Key Messages: 1. The system is expected to become a tropical storm before reaching the Lesser Antilles and tropical storm conditions are possible beginning Friday in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands. 2. Heavy rainfall will move quickly across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados, on Friday. Isolated flash flooding and mudslides are possible. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas through early next week, although the forecast is more uncertain than usual since the system does not have a well-defined center. Interests in these areas should monitor the system's progress and updates to the forecast. 4. Interests in Florida should monitor updates to the forecast for this system, but it is too soon to determine what if any impacts could occur there next week given the uncertainty in the long-range forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 9.6N 43.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 01/0600Z 10.2N 46.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 01/1800Z 11.1N 51.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 12.4N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 13.8N 61.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 15.4N 66.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 17.0N 70.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 20.0N 77.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 05/1800Z 22.5N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Public Advisory Number 1

2021-06-30 22:50:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 302050 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM AST Wed Jun 30 2021 ...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE ATLANTIC BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.6N 43.7W ABOUT 1195 MI...1920 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines. The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Lucia. The Government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Martinique. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines * St. Lucia * Barbados * Martinique A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti should monitor the progress of this system. Warnings and additional watches will likely be required tonight and on Thursday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 9.6 North, longitude 43.7 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands on Friday, move into the eastern Caribbean Sea late Friday and Friday night, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or on Thursday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Five can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical-storm conditions are possible in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands on Friday. RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone will produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 inches on Friday across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may produce isolated flash flooding and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

2021-06-30 22:50:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUN 30 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 302050 PWSAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC WED JUN 30 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) X(14) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 16(25) X(25) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 11(28) X(28) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) X(29) X(29) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 9(24) X(24) X(24) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 28(28) 5(33) X(33) X(33) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 26(26) 5(31) X(31) X(31) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) 16(16) 4(20) X(20) X(20) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Five Forecast Advisory Number 1

2021-06-30 22:50:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUN 30 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 302050 TCMAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC WED JUN 30 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT...AND THE GRENADINES. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. LUCIA. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MARTINIQUE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES * ST. LUCIA * BARBADOS * MARTINIQUE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA, GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WARNINGS AND ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 43.7W AT 30/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 43.7W AT 30/2100Z AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 42.8W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 10.2N 46.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.1N 51.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.4N 56.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.8N 61.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.4N 66.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.0N 70.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 30SE 30SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 20.0N 77.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 22.5N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.6N 43.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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