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Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2021-07-03 22:53:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 03 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 032053 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC SAT JUL 03 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) CHARLOTTE NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 11(23) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 8(23) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 6(20) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 3(24) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 3(22) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 3(24) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 2(20) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 1(25) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) X(17) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) 1(21) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) 1(17) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) X(17) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17) X(17) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 3(15) X(15) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 2(16) X(16) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 9(17) 1(18) X(18) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 1(14) X(14) MARATHON FL 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 25(31) 14(45) X(45) X(45) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 30(35) 18(53) 1(54) X(54) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) X(18) X(18) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 29(38) 2(40) X(40) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 3(21) X(21) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) 8(42) X(42) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 2(11) X(11) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 12(36) 1(37) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 19(34) X(34) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 1(20) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) 1(21) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) X(20) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) X(22) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ANDROS 34 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) GREAT EXUMA 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MAYAGUANA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 26(35) 7(42) 1(43) X(43) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 9(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 2( 2) 39(41) 13(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAMAGUEY 34 1 36(37) 9(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) CAMAGUEY 50 X 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 33 4(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MONTEGO BAY 34 4 20(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) KINGSTON 34 12 13(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) LES CAYES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LES CAYES 50 92 X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE BEATA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 14
2021-07-03 22:52:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 032052 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021 ...CENTER OF ELSA CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI... ...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 73.9W ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM E OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas. The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos, and a Tropical Storm Watch for the provinces of Mayabeque and Havana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince * Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, Santiago de Cuba, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to Cabo Engano * Cayman Brac and Little Cayman * The Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, and Havana * The Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Cuba, the Cayman Islands, the Florida peninsula, and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required tonight or on Sunday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 73.9 West. Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h). A decrease in forward speed is expected tonight and on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move near the southwestern peninsula of Haiti over the next few hours, and then move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba on Sunday. By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits. Elsa is then forecast to move move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Sunday, but gradual weakening is forecast on Sunday night and Monday when Elsa is expected to be near or over Cuba. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) mainly to the north of the center. The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are still possible in the hurricane warning area in Haiti for a few more hours. Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible for a few more hours over portions of the Dominican Republic, and are expected on Jamaica and over eastern and central Cuba on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Cayman Islands Sunday and Sunday night and in western Cuba and the Florida Keys Sunday night and Monday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Craig Key, FL to Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected today into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides, some of which may be significant in nature. Across portions of Cuba Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 6 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding. Rainfall from Elsa is likely to impact portions of the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula early next week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 14
2021-07-03 22:49:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 03 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 032049 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 2100 UTC SAT JUL 03 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...AND CIENFUEGOS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF MAYABEQUE AND HAVANA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT AU PRINCE * SOUTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA PALENQUE TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...AND CIENFUEGOS * JAMAICA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EAST OF PUNTA PALENQUE TO CABO ENGANO * CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF MATANZAS...MAYABEQUE...AND HAVANA * THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM CRAIG KEY WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 73.9W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 24 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 30SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 73.9W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 72.8W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.7N 75.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.2N 78.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.6N 80.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.1N 81.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.9N 82.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 26.9N 83.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 32.0N 82.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 36.5N 77.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 73.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 13A
2021-07-03 19:48:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021 870 WTNT35 KNHC 031748 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 200 PM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021 ...CENTER OF ELSA PASSING SOUTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 73.0W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM E OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of the Dominican Republic has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti, changed the Tropical Storm Warning to a Tropical Storm Watch east of Punta Palenque to Cabo Engano, and discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the north coast of the Dominican Republic. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince * Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to Cabo Engano * Cayman Brac and Little Cayman * The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, the Florida peninsula, and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 73.0 West. Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 29 mph (46 km/h). A decrease in forward speed is expected later today and Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move near the southern coast of Hispaniola later today and tonight, and move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba on Sunday. By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits. Elsa is forecast to move move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through tonight, but gradual weakening is forecast on Sunday and Monday when Elsa is expected to be near or over Cuba. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) mainly to the north of the center. Port Au Prince, Haiti, recently reported a wind gust of 51 mph (81 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft data is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are still possible in the hurricane warning area in Haiti later today. Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are occurring over portions of the Dominican Republic, are expected on Jamaica and over eastern Cuba on Sunday, and are possible over central Cuba Sunday night or Monday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet RAINFALL: The outer rain bands associated with Elsa will impact Puerto Rico today with rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches possible. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding, minor river flooding, and mudslides. Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected today into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides, some of which may be significant in nature. Across portions of Cuba Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 6 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding. Rainfall from Elsa is likely to impact portions of the Florida Keys and southern Florida early next week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Elsa Public Advisory Number 13
2021-07-03 17:33:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 031533 CCA TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 13...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021 Corrected Cuban province to Cienfuegos in the summary section ...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVER PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 71.6W ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM S OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM E OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba, and a Tropical Storm Watch for the provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas. The Government of Jamaica has changed the Hurricane Warning for Jamaica to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti * Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince * South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to Cabo Engano * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Bahia de Manzanillo * Cayman Brac and Little Cayman * The Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, the Florida peninsula, and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Elsa was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 71.6 West. Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 29 mph (46 km/h). A decrease in forward speed is expected later today and Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move near the southern coast of Hispaniola later today and tonight, and move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba on Sunday. By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits. Elsa is forecast to move move near or over portions of the west coast of Florida on Tuesday. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast tonight, but gradual weakening is forecast on Sunday and Monday when Elsa is expected to be near or over Cuba. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) mainly to the north of the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane Hunter Aircraft data is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are still possible in the hurricane warning area in Haiti and the Dominican Republic later today. Hurricane conditions are possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are expected on Jamaica and over eastern Cuba on Sunday, and are possible over central Cuba Sunday night or Monday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet RAINFALL: The outer rain bands associated with Elsa will impact Puerto Rico today with rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches possible. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding, minor river flooding, and mudslides. Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected today into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides, some of which may be significant in nature. Across portions of Cuba Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 3 to 6 inches is expected. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding. Rainfall from Elsa is likely to impact portions of the Florida Keys and southern Florida early next week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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