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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 13
2021-07-03 17:31:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 03 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 031531 CCA TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC SAT JUL 03 2021 CORRECTED CUBAN PROVINCE TO CIENFUEGOS IN SUMMARY SECTION CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS. THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR JAMAICA TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUNTA PALENQUE TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE COAST OF HAITI NORTH OF PORT AU PRINCE * SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EAST OF PUNTA PALENQUE TO CABO ENGANO * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN... LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA * JAMAICA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...GRANMA...GUANTANAMO...HOLGUIN... LAS TUNAS...AND SANTIAGO DE CUBA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO BAHIA DE MANZANILLO * CAYMAN BRAC AND LITTLE CAYMAN * THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 71.6W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 30SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 71.6W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 70.3W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.1N 74.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.6N 76.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.2N 78.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.7N 80.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 24.0N 81.8W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.9N 82.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 30SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 30.0N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 35.0N 78.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 71.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 03/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-07-03 17:01:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 031501 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Elsa Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 03 2021 Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and satellite imagery indicate that Elsa has weakened some since the last advisory. The aircraft reported maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of 64 kt well to the northeast of the center, and maximum surface winds estimates from the SFMR of about 55 kt. The aircraft-reported central pressure is near 999 mb and gradually rising, In addition, the center was exposed for a few hours, although it is now located at the northwestern edge of a new convective burst. Based on the aircraft data, the initial intensity is reduced to 60 kt. The initial motion is now 295/25. Elsa is approaching a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by a large baroclinic trough over the eastern United States. The global models forecast this trough to move eastward into the Atlantic, but the southern portion is likely to split off and become an upper-level low pressure area over the western Gulf of Mexico, with the subtropical ridge over the Atlantic situated to the east of the this low. This evolution should cause Elsa to slow its current breakneck forward speed during the next day or so, then turn northwestward between 36-60 h, followed by a general northward motion from 72-96 h and recurvature into the westerlies after that time. The track guidance is in much better agreement than this time yesterday, and Elsa is expected to pass near or over southwestern Haiti, Cuba, and the eastern Gulf of Mexico or the Florida Peninsula during the next 3 days or so. After that, the system is likely to cross portions of the southeastern United States on its way into the Atlantic. The new NHC forecast track has only minor adjustments from the previous one, and it lies near the various consensus models. Elsa continues to be affected by northwesterly shear that is at least partly due to the fast forward motion. While the forward speed is forecast to decrease over the next few days, continued westerly shear and land interaction are expected to cause additional weakening. Indeed, by 60 h, the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF show Elsa as a weak system with some separation between the low- and mid-level centers. While some shear is likely to continue when the storm is near or over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, upper-level divergence associated with the aforementioned upper-level low could allow for some re-intensification. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for more weakening in the first 48 h than previously forecast and then shows re-intensification over the Gulf of Mexico. Through the first 72 h, the forecast is at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. Although Elsa is now a tropical storm, hurricane warnings remain in effect for portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti at this time, as conditions have not yet reached their worst there and the possibility that a short-lived re-intensification might occur due to a convective burst. Given that there is still uncertainty in the track forecast and the degree of land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba, users are urged to factor in some of this uncertainty. For reference, average NHC track errors at days 3 and 4 are 125 miles and 150 miles, respectively. The average NHC intensity errors are around 15 mph for both days 3 and 4. Key Messages: 1. A hurricane warning remains in effect for portions of Haiti and the Dominican Republic, where near-hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected through this evening. 2. Widespread heavy rain will move across southern Hispaniola and Jamaica today into Sunday where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday, resulting in significant flooding and mudslides over Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys and southern Florida early next week, isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding will be possible. 3. Tropical storm conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected with hurricane conditions possible in portions of eastern Cuba beginning early Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible in central Cuba Sunday night and Monday. 4. There is an increasing risk of tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and rainfall impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida Peninsula. This risk will spread northward along the Florida Peninsula through Wednesday and reach the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas Wednesday and Thursday, however uncertainty in the forecast remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba. Interests in Florida and along the southeast U.S. coast should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 17.0N 71.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 18.1N 74.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 19.6N 76.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 05/0000Z 21.2N 78.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 05/1200Z 22.7N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 06/0000Z 24.0N 81.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 06/1200Z 25.9N 82.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 07/1200Z 30.0N 82.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 08/1200Z 35.0N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2021-07-03 16:46:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 03 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 031446 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM ELSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1500 UTC SAT JUL 03 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 17(20) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15(25) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 12(22) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 9(28) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 7(23) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 9(29) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 8(24) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 6(28) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 4(21) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 4(26) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) 3(20) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 10(18) 1(19) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 10(18) 1(19) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 7(17) 1(18) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 5(19) X(19) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 12(18) 3(21) X(21) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 2(15) 1(16) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 2(17) 1(18) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 26(45) 2(47) X(47) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) X(13) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 30(47) 3(50) X(50) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 28(33) 7(40) 1(41) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 9(25) X(25) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 15(39) X(39) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 19(35) 2(37) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 24(32) 2(34) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 4(20) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 4(22) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 2(20) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 2(23) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 2(15) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) X(12) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) ANDROS 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) GREAT EXUMA 34 X 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYAGUANA 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GRAND TURK 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 13(27) X(27) X(27) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 26(34) 3(37) X(37) X(37) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAMAGUEY 34 X 5( 5) 39(44) 3(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 5 46(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MONTEGO BAY 34 1 7( 8) 4(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) KINGSTON 34 2 8(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) LES CAYES 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) LES CAYES 50 52 5(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) LES CAYES 64 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 87 X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CAPE BEATA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAPE BEATA 50 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) PUERTO PLATA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Hurricane Elsa Public Advisory Number 12A
2021-07-03 13:57:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Sat Jul 03 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 031157 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Elsa Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 800 AM AST Sat Jul 03 2021 ...ELSA MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA... ...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THERE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 70.3W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Southern coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque to the border with Haiti * Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic * Jamaica A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Haiti north of Port Au Prince * South coast of the Dominican Republic east of Punta Palenque to Cabo Engano A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Granma, Guantanamo, Holguin, Las Tunas, and Santiago de Cuba A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Bahia de Manzanillo * Cayman Brac and Little Cayman A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, the Florida peninsula, and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 70.3 West. Elsa is moving very quickly toward the west-northwest near 31 mph (50 km/h). A decrease in forward speed is expected later today and Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest Sunday night or Monday. On the forecast track, Elsa will move near the southern coast of Hispaniola later today and tonight, and move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba on Sunday. By Monday, Elsa is expected to move across central and western Cuba and head toward the Florida Straits. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but slow weakening is forecast on Sunday and Monday when Elsa is expected to be near or over Cuba. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in Haiti and the Dominican Republic later today. Hurricane conditions are expected on Jamaica tonight or Sunday, and are possible in eastern Cuba on Sunday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide levels by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow within the hurricane watch and warning areas... Southern coast of Cuba...3 to 5 feet Southern coast of Hispaniola...2 to 4 feet Jamaica...1 to 3 feet RAINFALL: The outer rain bands associated with Elsa will impact Puerto Rico today with rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches possible. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding, minor river flooding, and mudslides. Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides. Across portions of the Cayman Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday, rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches is expected. This will result in significant flash flooding with mudslides in Cuba. Rainfall from Elsa is likely to impact portions of the Florida Keys and southern Florida early next week. Amounts of 2 to 4 inches with localized maximum amounts up to 6 inches will be possible, which may result in isolated flash, urban, and minor river flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Elsa will spread westward across the Caribbean Sea through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-07-03 10:38:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Jul 03 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 030838 TCDAT5 Hurricane Elsa Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 500 AM AST Sat Jul 03 2021 Elsa appears less organized this morning. Satellite images show an asymmetric cloud pattern with the low-level center located near the northwestern edge of the main area of thunderstorms. This satellite presentation is indicative of moderate-to-strong northwesterly shear that is likely caused by the tropical cyclone's fast forward motion. The initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt following a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates. The hurricane passed by NOAA buoy 42059 a few hours ago, and the storm's minimum pressure was adjusted a few millibars higher based on the buoy's data. Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be flying through Elsa in a couple of hours, and the data the plane collects will provide a better estimate of Elsa's intensity and structure. Elsa continues to move very quickly to the west-northwest at about 27 kt. A subtropical ridge to the north of the hurricane should keep it on a west-northwest path, albeit at a slightly slower pace through the weekend. This should take the core of the storm just south of or over southern Hispaniola later today and near or across Jamaica and eastern Cuba on Sunday. Shortly after that time, Elsa is expected to near the western edge of the ridge and move toward a weakness over the southeastern U.S. In response to this pattern change, Elsa should slow down some more and turn to the north. The models appear to be slowly converging on a solution in showing the cyclone making the northward turn somewhere over Cuba on Monday and then heading in the vicinity of Florida or the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday through Wednesday. Although the models are in better agreement compared to previous days, there is still a considerable amount of spread in the GFS and ECMWF ensemble members, and the details of the long-term track are still uncertain. Some mid-level wind shear associated with Elsa's fast forward speed appears to be affecting the hurricane now. However, since the cyclone is expected to slow down and move beneath an upper-level anticyclone later this weekend, it seems likely that the vortex will become better aligned in the vertical. The big question is will Elsa be interacting with the mountainous islands of Hispaniola and Cuba when the environmental winds become conducive for strengthening. If the cyclone manages to stay south of those islands, Elsa could have an opportunity to restrengthen. Conversely, if the storm tracks directly over the islands, weakening would very likely occur. As a compromise, the NHC intensity forecast shows little change in strength through tonight, followed by slow weakening on Sunday and early Monday. Slight restrengthening is forecast when Elsa moves north of Cuba and across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This forecast is a little lower than the previous one in the short term, but is largely unchanged at the longer forecast times. Given that there is still uncertainty in the track forecast and the degree of land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba, users are urged to factor in some of this uncertainty. For reference, average NHC track errors at days 3 and 4 are 125 miles and 150 miles, respectively. The average NHC intensity errors are around 15 mph for both days 3 and 4. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are expected within the Hurricane Warning areas in Haiti and the Dominican Republic later today and in Jamaica beginning Sunday. 2. Widespread heavy rain will move across southern Hispaniola and Jamaica today into Sunday where isolated to scattered flash flooding and mudslides will be possible. Heavy rain will then impact the Cayman Islands and Cuba Sunday into Monday resulting in significant flooding with mudslides in Cuba. As Elsa approaches the Florida Keys and southern Florida early next week, isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding will be possible. 3. Hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge are possible in portions of eastern Cuba beginning early Sunday where a Hurricane Watch is in effect. There is an increasing risk of wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts elsewhere in Cuba Sunday and Monday. 4. There is an increasing risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts beginning Monday in the Florida Keys and spreading northward along the Florida Peninsula through Tuesday. However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba this weekend. Interests throughout Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 16.2N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 17.5N 72.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 19.0N 75.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 20.5N 77.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 22.1N 79.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/1800Z 23.4N 81.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 06/0600Z 24.7N 82.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 28.2N 83.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 33.7N 80.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Berg
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