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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-06-26 16:52:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 26 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 261452 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 1500 UTC SAT JUN 26 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 105.3W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 105.3W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 105.1W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.5N 105.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.3N 106.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.4N 106.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.1N 107.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.6N 107.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.3N 108.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 22.1N 109.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 22.9N 110.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 105.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 26/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART
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Hurricane Enrique Public Advisory Number 5A
2021-06-26 13:43:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 261143 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 700 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 ...ENRIQUE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 105.0W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico A Hurricane Watch may be required for portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico later today. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 105.0 West. Enrique is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). The storm is forecast to gradually slow down and turn toward the northwest tonight or Sunday, and then continue on a northwesterly heading through Monday. On the forecast track, the core of Enrique is expected to remain offshore roughly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next two to three days. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Enrique is forecast to become a category 2 hurricane by Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in the eastern portions of the warning area. These winds are expected to spread westward within the warning area tonight and through the weekend. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Sunday. RAINFALL: Through Monday, Enrique is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal sections of Michoacan and Jalisco in southwest Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart
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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-06-26 10:55:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 666 WTPZ45 KNHC 260855 TCDEP5 Hurricane Enrique Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 The cloud pattern of Enrique has continued to become better organized since the last advisory, with a well-defined central dense overcast and a small, but persistent, area of cloud tops colder than -80C that may be the top of an eyewall. Satellite intensity estimates include subjective Dvorak estimates of 55 kt from TAFB and SAB and an objective estimate of 65 kt from the CIMSS ADT. The initial intensity is increased to 65 kt based mainly on the latter estimate. Although the cyclone continues to intensify, cirrus cloud motions to the west of the center suggest some shear is occurring. The initial motion is 290/7. A mid-level ridge to the north of the storm is forecast to weaken over the next day or so which should cause Enrique to slow down and bend northwestward between 24-60 h. After that time, the ridge is expected to re-strengthen, causing the tropical cyclone to turn west-northwestward once again. The track guidance has shifted a little to the right since the last advisory during the first 72 h, and the GFS model continues to show a sharper northward turn that would bring the center closer to the coast of Mexico. The new forecast track is also shifted a little to the right during the first 72 h, but it lies west of the various consensus models. Any subsequent adjustment of the forecast track to the right/east could require a hurricane watch for portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico later today. Enrique is forecast to remain within an environment of low vertical wind shear and over warm sea surface temperatures during the next 24 to 36 hours. Therefore, continued steady to rapid strengthening is likely as indicated by the Rapid Intensification Indices of the SHIPS model. The new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 95 kt at 36 h, which is near the high end of the intensity guidance. After 36 h, increasing shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should cause a steady weakening. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across a portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple days, which would likely cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of southwestern Mexico today and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 16.7N 104.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 16.9N 105.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 17.5N 106.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 18.5N 106.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 19.5N 107.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 20.2N 107.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 20.7N 108.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 21.5N 109.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 01/0600Z 22.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Enrique Public Advisory Number 5
2021-06-26 10:49:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 260849 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Enrique Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 ...ENRIQUE BECOMES A HURRICANE AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 104.7W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico A Hurricane Watch may be required for portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico later today. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 104.7 West. Enrique is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). The storm is forecast to gradually slow down and turn toward the northwest tonight or Sunday, and then continue on a northwesterly heading through Monday. On the forecast track, the core of Enrique is expected to remain offshore roughly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next two to three days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in the eastern portions of the warning area. These winds are expected to spread westward within the warning area tonight and through the weekend. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Sunday. RAINFALL: Through Monday, Enrique is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal sections of Michoacan and Jalisco in southwest Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Hurricane Enrique Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-06-26 10:49:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 26 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 260849 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 0900 UTC SAT JUN 26 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) 6(22) 3(25) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 6(21) 2(23) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 2( 3) 10(13) 27(40) 16(56) 1(57) X(57) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 9(17) 2(19) X(19) SAN BLAS 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) P VALLARTA 34 1 2( 3) 6( 9) 14(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 105W 34 9 6(15) 3(18) 1(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 7( 9) 20(29) 5(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 9 22(31) 18(49) 4(53) 3(56) X(56) X(56) MANZANILLO 50 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) L CARDENAS 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 9(14) 23(37) 6(43) X(43) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 9(16) 4(20) X(20) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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