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Remnants of Claudette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2021-06-22 04:57:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 22 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 220256 PWSAT3 REMNANTS OF CLAUDETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 0300 UTC TUE JUN 22 2021 AT 0300Z THE REMNANTS OF CLAUDETTE WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS ...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 8 X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Remnants of Claudette Public Advisory Number 18
2021-06-22 04:56:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Jun 21 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 220256 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Remnants Of Claudette Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 1100 PM AST Mon Jun 21 2021 ...CLAUDETTE HAS BECOME A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.0N 69.0W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the remnants of Claudette were located near latitude 39.0 North, longitude 69.0 West. The remnants are moving toward the east-northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Remnants of Claudette Forecast Advisory Number 18
2021-06-22 04:56:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 22 2021 000 WTNT23 KNHC 220256 TCMAT3 REMNANTS OF CLAUDETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032021 0300 UTC TUE JUN 22 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 69.0W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 210SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 69.0W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 70.3W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.0N 69.0W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON CLAUDETTE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Claudette Forecast Discussion Number 17
2021-06-21 22:32:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 212032 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 500 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 Claudette's low-level center passed over or near buoy 44014 (east of Virginia Beach) around 1400 UTC, and was associated with a sharp south-to-north wind shift and an estimated pressure of 1004 mb. In addition, buoy 41001, located in the southeastern quadrant of the cyclone's circulation, reported a 1-minute sustained wind of 39 kt at around 1600 UTC. Based on these data, the intensity has been increased to 40 kt, which is supported by a satellite classification of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB. The initial motion estimate is 060/25 kt. Claudette is expected to continue in a general east-northeastward direction through tonight ahead of a deep-layer trough and associated frontal system that is moving across the eastern United States. By early Tuesday, the cyclone is forecast move northeastward at a slightly faster forward speed over the colder waters of the far northwestern Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies down the center of the tightly packed track model guidance suite. Claudette has likely peaked in intensity, and little change in strength is expected due to the cyclone currently moving over sub-23-deg-C sea-surface temperatures with even colder water ahead of the storm. Claudette is forecast to become a post-tropical extratropical low in the 12-24-hour period, but that transition could occur sooner. The latest official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the intensity consensus models HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 37.5N 72.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 39.5N 67.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 42.8N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 23/0600Z 46.0N 56.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Claudette Public Advisory Number 17
2021-06-21 22:32:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 212031 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Claudette Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021 500 PM EDT Mon Jun 21 2021 ...CLAUDETTE MOVING QUICKLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.5N 72.1W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Claudette was located near latitude 37.5 North, longitude 72.1 West. Claudette is moving toward the east-northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h). An east-northeastward to northeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next day or so. On the forecast track, Claudette will move across the northwestern Atlantic Ocean tonight, and pass just south of Nova Scotia on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast tonight. Some weakening is expected on Tuesday, and Claudette is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone Tuesday afternoon and dissipate late Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on ship and buoy observations is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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