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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-06-26 04:38:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUN 26 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 260237 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 0300 UTC SAT JUN 26 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 104.1W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 104.1W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 103.8W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.7N 105.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.1N 105.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.8N 106.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.9N 106.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.8N 107.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.5N 108.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 21.5N 109.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 22.5N 111.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 104.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 26/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Enrique Public Advisory Number 3A
2021-06-26 01:46:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 252345 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 700 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 ...ENRIQUE QUICKLY STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 103.8W ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 103.8 West. Enrique is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). The storm is forecast to gradually slow down with a turn toward the northwest expected to occur by Sunday. On the forecast track, the core of Enrique is expected to remain offshore roughly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Enrique is likely to become a hurricane later tonight or on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in the eastern portions of the warning area. These winds are expected to spread westward within the warning area tonight and through the weekend. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Sunday. RAINFALL: Enrique is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through Sunday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown/Berg
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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-06-25 22:57:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 252056 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Enrique has continued to become better organized on satellite imagery over the course of the day. After exhibiting a prominent banding pattern for the majority of the morning and early afternoon, a recent convective burst with cloud tops below -80 C has developed over the center and could be the start of an organized central dense overcast. While there have not been any recent microwave passes to assess the structure underneath the cirrus canopy, scatterometer wind data over the center of Enrique indicated the extent of 34-kt winds east of the center had expanded, with a peak wind retrieval of 38 kt. Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB were T3.0/45 kt, while SAB was T2.5/35 kt. The objective Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) has also been gradual increasing with its latest estimate at T3.5/55 kt. Taking a blend of Dvorak estimates with the somewhat lower scatterometer wind data yields an estimated intensity of 45 kt. Enrique has maintained a west-northwest heading for the majority of the day, but seems to be gradually slowing down at 290/7 kt. The track philosophy for the next few days has remained unchanged, with a weakening mid-level ridge to the north of Enrique likely to lead to a slowdown in the storm's forward motion with a northwest bend in its track. After 72 h, Enrique is expected to begin bending back to the west-northwest as the mid-level ridge re-intensifies, and the cyclone becomes more influenced by low-level steering flow while becoming a more shallow vortex. The latest track guidance has shifted a bit to the right after the first 24 h and the NHC track forecast follows suit, in good agreement with the track guidance consensus, but still remains left of the GFS and HWRF models. Satellite imagery this afternoon suggests Enrique is poised to intensify in the short term, while the storm remains embedded in a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear, high mid-level humidity, and warm sea-surface temperatures. In fact, the latest SHIPS-RI guidance indicates there is a 72 percent chance of a 45-kt wind increase over the next 36 hours, nearly 11 times its climatological value. The latest NHC intensity forecast is just below this value, calling for a 85-kt peak intensity in 36 hours. After 48 hours, increasing easterly shear, and possibly cooler upwelled waters as Enrique moves slowly northwestward is expected to begin a weakening trend. The latest NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the intensity consensus, but remains just a little below the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA). The expanded wind radii east of Enrique has prompted the issuance of Tropical Storm Warnings from Zihuatanejo northwestward to Cabo Corrientes. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across portion of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of southwestern Mexico tonight and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for a portion of that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 15.9N 103.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 16.3N 104.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 16.7N 105.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 17.2N 105.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 18.0N 106.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 28/0600Z 18.9N 106.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 19.8N 107.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 21.0N 109.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 21.9N 110.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Enrique Public Advisory Number 3
2021-06-25 22:50:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 252049 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Enrique Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 ...ENRIQUE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 103.3W ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Zihuatanejo northwestward to Cabo Corrientes. In addition, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Cabo Corrientes northward to San Blas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... *Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... *Cabo Corrientes to San Blas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 103.3 West. Enrique is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). The storm is forecast to gradually slowdown with a turn toward the northwest expected to occur by Sunday. On the forecast track, the core of Enrique is expected to remain offshore roughly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast and Enrique is likely to become a hurricane on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in eastern portions of the warning area. These winds are expected to spread westward within the warning area tonight and through the weekend. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Sunday. RAINFALL: The outer bands of Enrique are likely to cause locally heavy rains over portions of southwestern Mexico, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Enrique Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2021-06-25 22:50:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUN 25 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 252049 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 2100 UTC FRI JUN 25 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 3(15) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 3(14) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 21(32) 5(37) X(37) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 9(16) 1(17) X(17) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 19 22(41) 8(49) 3(52) 1(53) X(53) X(53) 15N 105W 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 4( 4) 7(11) 12(23) 6(29) X(29) X(29) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MANZANILLO 34 5 14(19) 18(37) 11(48) 4(52) 1(53) X(53) MANZANILLO 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) L CARDENAS 34 14 6(20) 4(24) 2(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28) ZIHUATANEJO 34 7 4(11) 4(15) 2(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) ACAPULCO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 11(17) 11(28) 2(30) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 5(16) 1(17) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI
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